Experts warn that “it’s not a matter of if but when” a major pandemic will happen

spanish-flu-ward-camp-funstonOkay, I’ll admit it, a fear of a deadly global pandemic virus is and the main reason that I prep, sure something, like an economic collapse certainly would not be enjoyable, but considering the repercussions and life changing events that would follow after such a pandemic event, an economic collapse pales in comparison.

A modern pandemic, of say the magnitude of the Black Death would cause a ripple effect that would reach far past the piles of bodies, mass graves and incineration chambers, it would also destroy the economy because people would be afraid to show up for work, people would be afraid to send their children to school, they would be afraid to be in or near anyone else and all for good reason.

When no one shows up for work modern civilization will quickly come to a halt, utilities shutdown, emergency personnel stay home, markets close their doors because no one shows up to buy and no one shows up to work, production halts because workers stay home or have passed away. The list could go on forever, but you get the point.

A modern pandemic would have a wide sweeping effect far beyond the actual sickness and death rate.

With The Black Death the fatality rate was recorded to over 25 million people or one-fourth of the entire population, now think about percentage and todays, population of over 7.046 billion people. One-fourth of our current  population of 7.046 billion people gone, dead and burning to ashes in massive cremation piles or bulldozed into the thousands of unmarked mass graves that have been scattered over the landscape.

And according to the experts at the CDC  “it’s not a matter of if but when” a major pandemic will happen…

Flu pandemics have happened throughout history. They occur from time to time, and some are worse than others.

Three flu pandemics happened in the 1900s. Near the end of World War I, the 1918 Flu Pandemic was the most severe flu pandemic of the century. It killed about 675,000 people in the United States and between 20 to 50 million people around the world.

If you check your family’s history, you may find how your family was affected at that time. Almost everyone was touched in some way by the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Other flu pandemics in the 1900s were less severe.

Public health experts say it’s not a matter of IF a flu pandemic will happen, but WHEN. We cannot predict when the next flu pandemic will happen.

No this isn’t just some doomsday prophecy, that was written down a millennium ago by a “fortune-teller” after awakening from a nightmare, or the ranting’s of some modern-day doomsday cult leader, but a prediction that is based on history and scientific medical fact.

It is going to happen – a major pandemic that will kill millions and possibly even billions will happen in the future. Count on it…

And even, if you manage to not fall victim to the virus, the following domino effect, will have far-reaching, and catastrophic life changing consequences for you. Such an event would be the true end of the world as we know it or TEOTWAWKI that everyone has been talking about.

Surviving the initial outbreak might turn out to be the easy part if you’re prepared and careful with the aftermath being the real challenge for survival…

Remember the movie based on the Steven King novel “The Stand (link to full movie)” where an accidental release of a super-deadly strain of the flu from a secret military laboratory known as Project Blue started a chain reaction that lead to the deaths of millions…  Unfortunately, that part of the movie is a distinct possibility, especially considering the fact the scientist are continually at work manipulating different bugs and viruses in an effort to make them stronger, deadlier and easier to spread from animal to animal and from person and person to person.

Scientists Warn About the Danger of Pandemic Due to a lab Mutated Virus

A group of scientists warned the European Commission about the danger of a possible leak from a laboratory of a mutated virus that could cause a pandemic with catastrophic results.

In a letter. Experts which include various Nobel Prize, they denounced the possible civilian and military use of experiments conducted at Erasmus Medical Center, in Rotterdam, Holland.

According to the newspaper The Independent, that center intentionally modifies the H5N1 avian flue virus with the purpose of making new stumps that could be transmitted from to birds to mammalians and to human. It seems the Dutch authorities warned the mastermind of the experiments, Ron Fouchier, that they need an export license before being published in a foreign journal.

However, this expert’s work was protected by the president of the European Virology Society, Giorgio Palu, who asked the European Commission to leave Rotterdam Lab continue its work, Noted the Independent.

In addition the 56 scientists who signed the warning letter argued that the experiments want to create new viral infections and there is always the risk of a leak.

Besides, experts see with great concern the future announcement of the results of this dangerous investigation as, they said, can be reproduced in malicious hands.

Modern Black Death – The Next Pandemic – BBC Horizon

No question about it – a major deadly pandemic will happen in the near future – I’m prepared and ready… are you?

About M.D. Creekmore

M.D. Creekmore is the owner and editor of He is the author of four prepper related books and is regarded as one of the nations top survival and emergency preparedness experts. Read more about him here.


  1. I agree with you Dr. I am glad that I am a “First- Responder”. Where I work the county has put together plans for all first responders and their families to be inoculated with known pandemic related illness’s. I have sat in on many governmental meetings and listened to their plans for the coming pandemic. We can only prepare and wait.

  2. worrisome says:

    For those that did not see my comment yesterday in Misc. H1N1 caught up with the firm I work with on the 30th, when a long term employee died of complications from it. As with most of us, she worked most of the time of the illness thinking it was nothing unusual, exposing most of the folks at her division. She waited too long to go see a dr. and when she finally did, she had pneumonia and she was too far gone to save.

    • WYO Ryder says:

      How sad :-(….

      Thank you for the info Worrisome, I for one stay home (as do my kids) when sick so as not to infect others. Everyone should be taking extra vitamin supplements/eating well, getting lots of rest and drinking/flushing with water.

      Stay safe and God Bless!

      • will vitamins and supplements really prevent flu and black plague? Will twice as much vitamins and supplements make you doubly safe? How about four times as much vitamins and suplements? Heck, why not just take the whole bottle everyday and live forever? And don’t forget to not step on cracks and touch all the parking meters.

        • WYO Ryder says:

          no sweetpea, don’t be stupid!

          Just taking supplements (vitamins, herbals, homeopathic type) won’t prevent someone from getting the flu (did not mention the plague) but keeping your immune system healthy by doing a combination those items I mentioned will most certainly help if not prevent. We do not get vaccinated and my kids stay healthy when the majority of school aged kids don’t.

          Let me know how the crack avoidance and meter touching works out for you 🙂


      • worrisome says:

        WYO, that is the right way to do it. I don’t know where you are at but here in Kali, businesses are between a rock and a hard place. Under ADA, employees can come to work sick and must be accomodated. Under CalOSHA and EEOC, employers must ensure that employees are protected from germs………… can isolate an employee that is ill, but if they refuse to go home when sick, or don’t “believe” that they need to be isolated…………then you are stuck with them. Crazy and schitzoid. And in today’s world, when everyone is looking for every $$ and sick leave only goes so far……………they come in sick because they have bills to pay. They lie about how bad they are……………then along comes someone who is not taking care of themselves, has no immunity and nothing to fight with and here ya are.

        Make me very worried about how stupid people can be.

        • WYO Ryder says:

          Hey there Worrisome 🙂

          I live in a small town in northern Wyoming and if you are sick, it is highly encouraged and okay that you stay home … (as with the school kids & the teachers- who are super accommodating with make-up work). That being said, most businesses here do not pay sick days so – no compensation when you stay home.

          I concur – all those ADA, EEOC & cal-OSHA laws are asinine! I hope your BOL is far, far away from all the craziness. I used to live in Lodi, CA and don’t miss it anymore.

          Again, stay safe and Happy New Year to you and yours!

        • Encourager says:

          worrisome, many people have compromised immune systems due to diseases such as chemotherapy, HIV, Lupus, or are on one of the arthritis drugs you see advertised on TV to the point of nausea that weaken the immune system. And these people may not share with their workmates about their medical problems.

          When someone deliberately goes to work and infects other, that is so wrong. I don’t care how many bills they have to pay! Attempted murder??? Just sayin’.

      • mom of three says:

        I agree I give my kids extra vitamins, we drink plenty of water and lots of rest when we are not sick.. Washing hand’s,when we come home from being out in public. If we start with keeping our self healthy we may be able to with stand certain illnesses. This is the second year, I have not got the flu shot, for my kids or me and the hubby and we’re healthier, then those who get it.

    • Worrisome,

      Sorry to hear about your co-worker. The scary thing about H1N1 is that it attacks younger, healthy people. Most strains of the influenza virus attack the very young, the very sick or the very old–not so with H1N1.

      • worrisome says:

        Bam Bam, in this case, she was 58, but was not good at taking very good care of herself. A smoker, was not careful about weight or diet, etc etc etc…. Her family made them test for flu type. In Cali they don’t always do it, sad huh.

        • Worrisome,

          Doctors in the U.S. rarely test for subtype. They diagnose flu by symptoms, and prescribe antivirals. Reporting is voluntary.

    • Donna in MN says:

      IT can be scary working is close quarters, breathing the same air with people who are sick with H1N1or any other contagous diseases, some people can show no symptoms but have flu and spread it.

      I don’t believe anymore what I heard that cold viruses remain active for 48 – 72 hours after catching it. I have seen it spread when co workers are out for a week and come back to work.

  3. Nebraska Woman says:

    My heathcare provider claims that colloidal silver helps dramatically. I have stocked up on that along with zeolite for flushing out toxins. This article is correct about the 1918 flu strain. So many people were overcome so quickly. My family (very much in the past) lost several members to it; most were copper mine employees and their families in the upper peninsula in Michigan. One (as family lore tells) was on his way home from a long day on the mines and felt fine; on the streetcar he was struck with the disease and died the next morning. That fast.
    And he was in his twenties and healthy.
    I suspect with our healthcare system in such dismal disarray it’s going to hit very, very hard. Selective who lives and who dies.

  4. Well I got hit with something very strong yesterday, my wife started coming down with a bug on New Years Eve, and yesterday I started getting a little tickle in my throat, and by night fall full fledged upper/lower respiratory virus. I say virus because my wife has been on an antibiotic for an unrelated illness and this hit her hard, when she gets a bacterial infection, it goes to her sinuses asap, but not now. I will let you know how this progresses, if I am diagnosed with “flu” I will update. I am in Utah.

    • worrisome says:

      rjarena, please go see your dr. if you are in the first 24-36 hours they may be able to give you tamiflu and reduce the symptoms.

      • Wish I could, but 2 years ago I got a very bad reaction to tamiflu, they won’t give it to me again. I have asthma and I react badly to those meds too. Some of us are not lucky.

        • rjarena,

          Have you tried any herbal remedies? I would suggest that you look into lobelia tincture for asthma and elderberry tincture for flu. Be forewarned, lobelia tincture tastes terrible. I gave some to my dad and he about spit it out.

        • Vitamin A–10,000 units a day.

    • Donna in MN says:

      Please take care of yourself with extra vitamin C, green teas, immune health foods and vitamins. IF you have a fever with aches and pains in your back, it is probably the flu. I hope both you and your wife recover very soon.

  5. The feds must know something we do not–the Obama administration is bringing the entire medical system under the umbrella of Health and Human Services, and they are setting up federal standards of readiness to respond to emergencies such as a pandemic. I have not read through this entire document but it appears someone has done some serious planning for some kind of nationwide emergency.

    • Donna in MN says:

      That’s VERY bad news. Under the direction of HHS Kathy Sebilious who lies to the American people, doesn’t communicate when things are a disaster like the OBcare website, and pretends things are wonderful in La La Land.

    • Viral epidemics, not just for humans. There’s one loose in the hog herds at the same time as this flu is ramping up in humans.

      U.S. hog herd falls more than expected as virus strikes.

      There’s an article on the Drudge report titled “DEADLY SWINE VIRUS SWEEPS US…” about how the hog herd has fallen by 1% in the last quarter due to a viral infection, Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) .

      In a conference call earlier this week, Smithfield Foods , the nation’s biggest hog producer, said PEDv might result in a loss of 2 million to 3 million hogs, or a 2 to 3 percent decline in U.S. production in 2014.

      Analysts and swine veterinarians have stressed that while the virus is fatal to young pigs, pork is safe to eat.

      Safe to eat, uh huh.

      • patientmomma says:

        Smithfield is getting ready to sell out to China so maybe…..

        • Encourager says:

          I believe Smithfield already did get sold to a firm in China. It was on a list of companies that have gotten bought up by China that I read over 4 months ago…

    • Hunker-Down says:

      Bam Bam,

      How many hospitals will not be able to afford to comply and just shut their doors?

      • H-D,

        Public hospitals are already on the government dole. They have no choice but to comply. Right now hospitals around the country are cutting their nursing staff, replacing them with nursing assistants–all to cut costs.

        There was talk months ago about hospitals refusing to take Medicare and Medicaid. The new federal standards apply only to public hospitals that take Medicare and Medicaid. But institutions that don’t take Medicare and Medicaid will soon go bankrupt. It all depends on the numbers–how many people in each category sign up.

      • Donna in MN says:

        Already people who thought they signed up for OBcare were refused at hospitals already since the law started coverage last Jan 1st. Their phone lines are jammed with “permission to operate” or finding out if the website got the patient info for their signups. This takes time away from patient care, if they get any.

        All we need is a pandemic with Obcare shutting down hospital care and many doctors leaving practice now and then comes the HHS to save the day with a national emergency. I wonder if it will be a quarantine without doctors since they left….?

    • and why did the powers that be buy up all the freeze dried food they could get?
      they surely know more than we do and are planning.
      think about it,

  6. Donna in MN says:

    My great Uncle died from the flu pandemic in France WW1 and his sister died of complications due to the flu. Both were healthy before this hit them.

    My Uncle worked for U of M in research studing legionairre’s disease and other contageous diseases. NO place is 100% safe. He caught TB from the lab and Old Goat’s Disease working there.

    The Black Plague was a bacteria spread by fleas on rats that spread quickly using the human body as a petri dish. The culture was to leave garbage and feces on their streets which brought in rats.When the towns and cities developed more sanitary conditions, the plague disappeared.. IF garbage collection stops and filth piles in city streets, a deadly bacteria or virus may be brought back to an epidemic of diseases we thought were long gone.

    There is a “Nightmare Bacteria” spreading across the country in 46 states that is resistent to drugs. Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are just one variety of antibiotic-resistant bacteria — MRSA is more common — but they are deadly enough to have been named “nightmare bacteria”. I read the most deadly cases are caught through hospitals (with good funding) where it gets into the blood directly through contaminated shots, needles, instruments, unclean hands, and operations.. With Hospitals losing funds and cutting staff under Obamacare, I believe it will make hospitals a cesspool of drug resistent bacteria and contagous diseases more than it is now.

    • Donna, as crazy as this may sound, the plague is still around. People continue to get infected every year, including here in the States. I am being lazy at the moment but you can do a quick search to get the stats.

  7. In our modern age of close proximity and long range travel, a pandemic will get out of control if it has any length of time for human incubation. If you are infuectious for, sat, 4 days before you really have symptoms, and that person is traveling, hundreds of thousands could be infected. Then make it during the holiday travel season…..quite a mess.

  8. Pandemics are the reason we began prepping as well. I read the book, The Jakarta Pandemic and then started thinking and learning about our history with pandemics. I know it is when, not if it happens.
    It is confusing and anxiety inducing trying to figure out what may be happening with the different illnesses, and when to avoid other people. My hope and preps are to be able to isolate for 3 months without outside contact. The family isn’t totally on board, and that will be the hardest part.

  9. Just getting over a head cold with bad sore throat. Came on day after Christmas and just started to feel better on Monday. Thought it was maybe strep throat but just red throat and no white spots. Almost went to the doctor on tues but felt better . An extra day off work last week and this week helped but was still kind of weak and lightheaded at work. Started to worry about flu but no high fever or chills or body aches , just stuffy scratchy throat.
    Have to really wonder if the Gov health dept we have that likes to cover up thing and lie will actually let out a warning in time to save lives if something does( or when ) does come along!!
    May be part of their plan to thin the herd….

    • Hunker-Down says:

      My son has the exact same symptoms.

    • So do I,, my DH was diagnosed Friday w/strep, and started on ABX, so when I started on Sunday I went to the doc thinking it was the same,,, but no. Throat was red but no white spots.
      It’s nice to say stay home if you don’t feel well,, but we are short staffed since it is a holiday week (I was off Wed for New Years and spent it on the couch,, but back to work today!

      If you figure out What you have , please share

      • S'wt Tater says:

        We are fighting some kind of virus…watery eyes, runny nose, occasional sneeze, sore throat,” feels feverish”, but no elevated temp..oil of oregano stopped mine but the one who will not use it,… is still wiping nose and eyes.

  10. Fenland Prepper says:

    I have said it before the real risk of a pandemic is the reason we prep. Yes all the other reasons are possible, Yellowstone blowing, meteor strike, emp solar flare and the economic collapse could or will happen but they are rare or have never happened, while pandemics like a new flu virus or the black death have happened in relatively recent times and WILL happen again. You only have to read the blogs to see it, let alone the CDC and WHO sites.

  11. yep, population reduction.
    don’t forget about bee honey to help when not feeling well.

  12. k. fields says:

    “No question about it – a major deadly pandemic will happen in the near future – I’m prepared and ready… are you?”

    MD, thanks for the warnings. Is there a second article coming up explaining just how you have prepared for all the possible scenarios?

    Personally, my situation would allow me to isolate my homestead from other humans for a considerable length of time (years if necessary) but there is no way I could control diseases from wild birds infecting my chickens and then me due to the necessary daily contact, or tick spread diseases from wild mammals infecting my livestock and again me as I’m leaning against the cow to milk her, or stop a virus such as someone else mentioned that would infect the wild pig population from spreading to my domestic hogs.

    The one that would worry me most though, would be a mutated mold or fungi of some sort distributed by the wind that would spread through grain crops (such as a more potent version of Ergot) that may not directly kill but would cause mental problems that would eventually lead to death.

    Having some face masks, taking some herbs and washing your hands is all well and good, but …

    I know no one has all the answers, but I’d be interested to hear your thoughts and what methods you’ve employed to gain the confidence you’ve so vividly expressed.

  13. PGCPrepper says:

    On a lighter note, I adopted a puppy today. 😀 I know, OT.

    BCTruck finally got to me with his talk of his “furbabies” and Mr. Creekmore with his doggie. She is awesome. Part Dachshund and something or a standard Dachshund; don’t know, don’t care. I live in a POA so we have rules w/respect to size. She turned out to be much cuter and sweeter than the pic below depicted. I think I need her more than she needs me though.

  14. k. fields,

    You bring up some good points but you’re all over the place with your scenarios.

    To grow into a pandemic the virus would need to easily, spread from animal to human or human to human.

    A tick infecting you (lime disease?) does not amount to a pandemic unless that virus mutated from the tick bite into something that could also be easily spread via human to human contact (Black Death).

    The Black Death was spread by a bacillus called Yersinia Pestis – the bacillus traveled from person to person pneumonically, or through the air, as well as through the bite of infected fleas and rats (rat and tic bite infections probably occurred mostly within the close confines of trading ships).

    I’ve never been bitten by a rat, but it could happen, the risk of tic bites can be drastically reduced by taking simple precautions.

    Still the most likely way to become infected with any virus is via close human to human contact. Which is what I was talking about in my article above, but you already knew that.

    There is no way to prepare for “all possible scenarios” such as space dust falling from the air that is contaminated with some strange alien virus that moves through the air infecting and killing everything…

    As for my preps, I am prepared and perfectly happy to isolate myself for a very long time if needed. Which is the most effective prep for the real possibility of a global pandemic, that is spread via human to human contact.

    • worrisome says:


    • k. fields says:

      You don’t have to be worrying about “space dust” to come up with pandemics that are transferred in ways other than human to human.

      “A tick infecting you (lime disease?) does not amount to a pandemic unless that virus mutated from the tick bite into something that could be easily spread via human to human contact.” That’s not quite true.

      The Black Death was spread by ticks, not human to human contact – was it not a pandemic? The bacteria begins its life harmlessly living in the digestive tracts of healthy mammals and only after it aggregates in the gut of infected fleas does the flea’s regurgitated blood become deadly to humans. It is not spread human-to-human. So how do you protect yourself?

      “Same with wild pigs infecting domestic hogs…”
      Ever heard of swine flu? The first know case in the continental US was in Madison County, Ohio. A woman contracted the illness after having contact with hogs at the Ross County Fair. Even if it never mutated for human to human spread, any virus that can spread from other mammals to humans has the potential to become pandemic.

      And it doesn’t have to be just mammals, hows about H5N1? Even if that doesn’t mutate to spread human to human, there is a real possibility it could cause a pandemic just from bird / bird droppings to human contact. If it begins to spread, should we get rid of all our domestic fowl? How could we protect them?

      I’m sorry you feel I was “all over the place” with my comments, I was simply stating some of my personal concerns. I realize my postings many times come across as harsh when I don’t mean for them to be, but I had assumed you had done more research and I was interested in what those steps may have been.

      Another example, if I remember right, you’re on a community water system aren’t you, like many people reading here? How could one protect themselves from water borne pathogens that could easily be the start of a pandemic if you don’t have control of the source?

      As I said, I was simply hoping for a part 2 that would cover some of the solutions that gave you the confidence to state that you are prepared for pandemics.

      • k. fields,

        I’ve been reading this blog for several years but never felt like commenting, because of people like k. fields being allowed to troll the comments. He has been here for I know of two years (using different names like witwct, Jason etc.. He is also the reason we lost several great and helpful readers such as Lint picker), whining and nitpicking everyone’s articles and comments in an attempt to make himself feel smarter that the other posters. He also likes making up stories about how well prepared he is, how long he has been prepping, how he has been, done and worked in every field imaginable and how he could survive on his imaginary homestead for 100 years. If he is so well prepared then why is he spending his time here nitpicking a blog and not out working on his homestead and preps.

        Get over yourself you’re nothing more than a troll, a liar and a blow hard that should be banned from posting here.

        • Jim T. raises a good point. Why is it that someone as self-sufficient as K Fields, with his own working farm, has never submitted an article? I have suggested that you write an article about growing, harvesting and storing wheat–something you said you’ve done for years. Yet no article. I am thinking Jim T. might be right–you are here just to criticize others. The rest of us are here to help others prepare.

          • k. fields says:

            Bam Bam, I am good at answering questions but I am not good at writing an article. I have tried but I get tied up with what to say and how to say it. Everything leads to something else in my mind and the proposed article just ends up as a mess of confusion. I admire folks like you and M.D. who seem to be able to write with such ease.

            You speak of an article about wheat – when folks have asked questions when I’ve commented about growing wheat, I believe I’ve answered their questions thoroughly, at least from their comments it has seemed I have.
            When I’ve commented on growing sunflowers for oil and particulars were asked of me, were my answers lacking?

            You can ask me whatever you like about the crops I grow, the animals I raise, or anything else specific I have commented on here and I’ll be happy to explain it to you, but if you say, “Write an article about growing wheat.” I would end up with a tome because, in my mind, I would have to explain about soils, I would have to explain about varieties, different methods of planting, different tools that are possible to use for planting, growing seasons, what to watch for while it’s growing, etc., etc. etc.

            You seem to be saying that if I can’t write an article, I have no right to comment on this blog. I have a lot of respect for you, so if that is actually how you feel, then say so to me, not as a comment to someone else and this will be the last comment of mine that you’ll have to endure.

          • PGCPrepper says:

            “I have suggested that you write an article about growing, harvesting and storing wheat–something you said you’ve done for years. Yet no article.

            Because yawn. Besides some of us can’t tolerate gluten. Just kidding. 😀

            BamBam, thanks for all your helpful info. You do help. Happy New Year.

          • Bam Bam:

            Although I have a tendency to take issue with some of the comments that K. Fields makes (or maybe it’s just the way it is said), I will have to come to his defense on writing articles.

            It takes something different to write an article, more than just a comment. I “know” a lot of different stuff, but writing something up is difficult. Some people it comes naturally to, and thank goodness it does! Others, not so much.

            For those that are prolific at writing, keep them coming. But I think that we don’t need to question those we really don’t know, as to their motivation.

        • k. fields says:

          Jim, I’m sorry my comments have upset you to the point that you feel it’s necessary to make a personal attack. I can understand disagreeing with something I’ve written but I don’t understand why such personal abuse is necessary.

          For the record;
          I have posted here since the fall of 2010 and always only under my own name, no one else’s.

          I have had very few jobs in my 63+ years. I worked for a National Park, did logging, septic maintenance, and a stint for the DOD – certainly not enough to be construed as having “worked in every field imaginable.”

          I’ve been “prepping” at my current home since the fall of 1972, that’s not something I need to “makeup.” If my level of preps seems excessive to you, think what you (any of you reading this) have accomplished just in the past couple of years and imagine where you will be if you continue at your current pace after 40 years.

          I certainly don’t feel I’m “smarter” than anyone else here – hell, I never even finished high school.

          I don’t normally spend a lot of time on the internet – usually I’ll check in here during my noon meal break and in the evenings such as now, but if you’ve been following my comments as closely as it seems you have been, you already know that. Posting here makes a nice change for me from the manual labor I normally do and the small time spent doesn’t affect other work.

          I read and comment on this blog because I am interested in what other people, with interests similar to mine, are thinking and doing.

          I don’t believe I’ve ever been “whining” but I do understand that my comments sometimes come across as “nitpicking” for some reason, although I’m simply asking other posters to explain why they have made a certain statement or what they have based that statement on. To me, that is having a discussion that both parties could learn something from. I don’t understand why that would be seen as being a troll.

          I know I have learned a lot from folks here who are actually willing to discuss things without relying on name calling or other personal abuse to make their points. I hope there are at least a couple of folks who have learned a few things from me.

          • Mother Earth says:

            K. Fields, I always enjoy your comments and knowledge. I think I’m envious of how well you’ve done at self sufficiency. If your comments seem harsh, maybe people should realize they are not meant to be and should be used to the way you write by now.

          • Schatzie Ohio says:

            I totally agree.

        • PGCPrepper says:

          Questioning a premise or some part of a particular article ≠ trolling.

          Mr. Creekmore is able to defend his article as you can see. I’ve seen other articles questioned to a harsher degree than this. Such is the interwebs though; what do I know?

        • lurker judith says:

          I don’t think he is Jason. And I don’t think he is why Lint Picker left.
          I left because I am interested in survivalism and prepping and questioned why the evangelicals were taking over the forum. Everyone has a right to their beliefs but too many were trying to force their beliefs down my throat and attacking me personally.
          I have tried to start participating again because for the most part there seems to be a more varied bunch of preppers on here than before and a lot more civility. I think a lot of that is because M.D took charge of things better. And k fields is right about one thing not all of us can write as well as bam bam and m.d. But we get our points across mostly.

      • I think MD ‘s point is you can’t prepare for everything so you prepare for what will most likely happen which is a virus spread by humans to humans.

    • My grandpa told me once the farmers around here would burn the fields every year when conditions were right to keep ticks at bay. Additionally, they’d dip the animals in a tick solution of some sort, either by being thrown in or swabbed on.

      We have what I call seed ticks here. There’ll be 1000’s of them in a single ball and when you touch it they swarm all over you. You could put two or three on a pinhead. So imagine 50 or more of these blood suckers in your crotch, under your arms and in your hair.

      The children of the old farmers don’t raise cattle so don’t burn the fields. Wild life spreads the ticks closer to our homes and then our animals go out to the woods and brings them the rest of the way in. The ticks have become a major problem. They kill baby animals of all sorts. They spread disease and they itch like crazy when they bite.

      A more organic control of ticks is Guinea fowl. Apparently, they live to eat ticks. Their meat is kinda strong, but eatable (or edible..I’m so confused). The babies are just the cutest things!!

      • S'wt Tater says:

        Those ticks are deer tick, they will give you lyme, and if you have already had it it will reactivate it.They are easiest removed by coating the affected area in cooking oil.I had over three hundred bites at one time this summer,(0n one leg) and they are no party. The bites can be neutralized by using hydrocortizone cream, benadryl cream and vagisil third of each and applying it to the about 10 hrs relief from itching.They can be prevented by applying tea tree oil to outer wear, and other such natural repellants..including garlic.

  15. But then doesn’t isolating yourself Just dumb down your immunity so that if and when you do finally catch something it makes it even worse?… isnt it better to be exposed to real world infectious nasties to give your body a chance to build antibodies?..

    • Larry,

      During the next deadly pandemic it would probably still be a good idea for you not to go and expose yourself on purpose in an attempt to build “antibodies” to the virus – but then that is up to you – personally, I prefer to wait it out.

      As we have seen from history, viruses usually become weakened over time, by as you said; people developing antibodies or immunity to the virus (usually twelve to eighteen months), or a vaccine maybe developed and produced. The key is to avoid catching it and dying during that time…

      • Larry and MD:

        All I know is that if I can seal myself up fast enough during a pandemic, I will. I’m no medical expert, but there are times I think it is better to “run and hide” than come out and fight something like this.

    • Donna in MN says:

      I went without a cold for 10 years. When I caught a cold after that, it was no worse than a regular cold.

      What doesn’t work with antibodies for one strain of virus doesn’t necessarily usually work for another strain. Before I went 10 years without a cold, I caught the flu with vomiting for several days. I felt better and recovered the 3rd day and the 4th day, another different flu manifested. I had to fly home sick.

      This is one reason why I never flew again to see my mom in winter. I saw an airline’s tail fall off in Detroit, we were laid over from a bad snow storm at two places, and with crowded conditions and people sick in the terminal and on the flights, I came down very sick that Christmas at my mom’s house.

  16. lurker judith says:

    For the next 5 months I won’t have contact with anyone but DH. And he wears a mask and gloves to the P.O. and bank. I cancelled dental appts and dmv appt. This worked for me last year and I at least have hope it will work this year. This swine flu is going to end up killing a lot of people.

    • Lurker judith,

      I think you are right. I have not found an analysis of the sequence from H1N1 isolates taken recently with those taken in 2009. This year H1N1 is infected younger, healthier people. A genetic shift has to be responsible for the changing demographic. But without further analysis of a suspected genetic shift, we don’t know what kind of animal we are dealing with.

      • lurker judith says:

        Bam Bam, I saw that some of the cases in TX and Alabama show a mutating virus that is resistant to Tamiflu. They start mutating and anything goes.

        • The dominant strain this year is pH1N1, the same strain that caused the 2009 pandemic. This is also the same strain that caused the Spanish Flu from 1918-1920. We don’t have samples from earlier influenza pandemics. But it would sure be interesting if we came across graves from the middle ages with fully preserved specimens. My bet is that H1N1 has been around since cities got big enough to host diseases.

        • I also read Tamiflu has no effect on the flu.

        • worrisome says:

          Anybody heard from Rider of Rohan? He is that Tex/Abama area and had this flu. Hoping he is ok.

    • And I also will exhibit this behavior, Judith.
      But to prepare for this, one must think from the moment of rising from bed till bedtime, what did I just use, and what if I didn’t have it–could I survive or would my life be uncomfortable without it.
      This task takes time–to prepare for all contingencies of our day to day needs.

  17. Gary in Bama says:

    Didnt ray bradberry do a short sifi story about an old couple surviving a pandemic ???

    • Gary in Bama,

      I think so, but I haven’t read any of his stories since I was 15 years old and I’ve been through a lot since then… Anyone?

      • Donna in Mn says:

        “The Last Night of the World” is the only one I found for Ray Bradbury stories. The couple dies though.


  18. The Stand is one reason I prep. Every time I read that blasted book, I get a sore throat and stuffy nose, lol. Of course, reality returns. But, the sequence of infection travel is so close to reality, it’s scary.
    I try to avoid illnesses, but I work retail, so good luck. I wash my hands very often, use a paper towel to open restroom doors, etc. and I am home in bed with vomitting and diarrhea today. 1 germ/virus/spore/bacteria. It’s all it takes. A coworker had this Monday. He called it food poisoning, I knew better. I tried to avoid, but failed.
    Of all possible SHTF scenarios, I feel most prepared for isolation due to pandemic. But still not prepared enough.

  19. The possibility of a pandemic occurring in the US is higher than most care to imagine. Such was a major motivation for me to begin prepping.

    For years, I was a data-miner for medical researchers at a hospital and pulled the data for 4 units: Infectious Disease, ER, Wound Care, and Respiratory. Some of the data showed that initial infections rates often occur in waves and that reinfection rates could cycle 1-6 months.

    Hence, my goal is a 6-month + prep of everything, including isolation supplies. I want to wait it out.

  20. I had read recently about an herbal remedy from the western part of the country that is in fact an anti-viral and anti-bacterial called desert parsley, Lomatium dissectum. The Washoe Indians have used it forever but was ‘discovered’ by a public health doctor during the 1918 pandemic. I feel better about this medicine than tamiflu and have made sure my three young adult children all have some. Also effective for lung congestion due to common colds – I can attest to this. I developed a head cold over the holidays and started taking it 3 x daily and it never moved down into my throat or chest, which is the norm for me, followed by a bout of strep. That’s good enough for me- inexpensive and available online through Amazon. Read up on it- and good luck! I plan like there will be no outside healthcare- maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

    • lurker judith says:

      I have been using this for a long time. There is a wonderful website where you can buy Lomatium fresh certain times of the year . Dried also. This is an awesome website where you can purchase many wildcrafted herbs that would be hard to find anywhere else.

  21. spinninghands says:

    Good article, but I was left wondering what the author does to prepare for the flu. It would have been helpful if he had shared what he has stocked up to prepare for a flu pandemic.

    • spinninghands,

      That is another article (part two) – this one was about the threat and not a how to, however there are a number of how to articles already posted here. Did you read any of the articles linked to at the end of the article? Sometimes what you need is just a simple search or one click away. Look around, use the search feature or click a link or two to find more information and advice.

  22. spinninghands says:

    M.D. Creekmore,

    Thank you for pointing out the other articles linked to the article. I just now looked through them, and they are indeed helpful. Looking forward to your part two, also.

  23. Alejandro De La Garza says:

    People underestimate the potential for another deadly flu pandemic. The 1918 – 1919 flu – the so-called “Spanish flu” – killed some 50 million people worldwide and sickened up to 40% of the planet’s population. Gina Kolata’s “Flu” provides a detailed analysis of this crisis, which hit just as World War I ended. In the days before air and high-speed rail travel, it’s amazing it managed to spread so fast. Despite intensive research, including exhuming the bodies of known victims, scientists still don’t know why it was so deadly.

    The 1957 – 1958 flu pandemic killed up to 4 million people and sickened about a quarter of the world’s population. The 1968 – 1969 flu pandemic killed about 1 million people worldwide. By then, air travel was more common, but the world’s population had increased exponentially, especially in Asia where both pandemics began.

    If something like the 1918 flu hit now, the death toll easily could reach the 1 billion mark. With overpopulation and frequent international travel, that’s a frighteningly real possibility. I’m truly surprised something of that magnitude hasn’t already struck. The only good thing is that health officials across the globe are more conscious of that probability now and try to monitor and warn of outbreaks.

  24. Buckwheat says:

    I have made no secret that I believe that we are in the end times. Pestilence is part of the deal as written in Revelation. I have only a few minutes to comment today but I thought that I would since I did commit to be less of a lurker. So here is a quick run down of things that I did not think had been discussed:
    – the global elite have long experimented with diseases and vaccines. They have repeatedly and publicly stated that the global population is too large. They want to reduce it. The number often repeated is 500M ~ 1B. That is a ~7B reduction.
    – some of the very same biological researchers working on our problems do ascribe to this same mindset and do experiment to weaponize viruses, bacteria and other pathogens.
    – Also, here are a couple of entries from the warning second coming website – it is pretty clear about how this will be introduced:

    If you follow how these people operate – it does fit their M.O. – create a problem/chaos (pandemic/epidemic) and bring the solution that fits their plan (vaccine).

    For the last year or so, I have been expecting that they were planning something with smallpox partly because of this description, the deadliness described in the Hotzone book and partly because of the massive buildup that the world govts (particularly the US) had been stockpiling smallpox vaccines in the last 10 yrs. My thought was when I ran across it “Why would we need to stock pile millions of doses for a disease that was wiped out in the early 20th century?” However, the letter that was referenced above in the article did give me pause when I saw it this week. The media did not do justice to the seriousness of the issue or how mad many of the people were that knew what those researchers were doing in Rotterdam.

    Also, for what it is worth, I do go back and check the references in this site as I do not always understand everything mentioned. But I do usually try to track this stuff down. Best I can tell, the One World Religion mentioned in the last entry can be found here It took a lot of searching to find that one.

  25. I live in San Antonio & it was reported on local radio yesterday that 6 people in South Texas (??) had died from the flu. I also read on the Houston Chronicle about a week ago of several people who had died in Montgomery county, that was talked about here. Dont hear it on the MSM though!
    A few yrs back I was diagnosed via a nasal swab to have had types A & B flu (?) & was given Tamiflu which made me better the next day. I was amazed.

  26. axelsteve says:

    I know that some flues and etc come from other countries that invade ours through illegal imagration since there citizens are not vacinated and there is not any health checks before they come here.

  27. Encourager says:

    Today is the first day I get my raw milk. The lady who was to pick it up for us called and her whole family, except dh, has the superbug Norovirus. Four small children plus mom down with diarrhea, vomiting and fevers. Her dh will be picking up the milk.

    Hope he doesn’t think I am weird when I greet him at the door wearing a mask and disposable gloves. I am going to tell him I was in the middle of cleaning the shower with a nasty mold killer…lol.

    The milk jugs will go straight into a bleach/water bath. Hopefully, that will protect us from the bug.

    Question, if her dh has no symptoms, can he be contagious just from being around his family?? What else should I do?

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