It has been a while since I ran a poll on The Survivalist Blog but thought it might be time for another one.
The point of this poll is to help you evaluate your preps from a different perspective and hopefully find any weak points needing attention.
What I want you to do is imagine a total SHTF situation – be as vivid and graphic as possible.
No more police, electricity from the pole, water from the tap, fuel from the pump, or food from the supermarket – basically everything is gone with no hope of resupply.
How long could you survive with your current skills and storage? What would you do after your supplies ran out?
You need to be completely honest with yourself, or this exercise won’t do you any good. As you appraise your preps and skills look for areas that could be improved.
Write it down so you don’t forget.
This should be an interesting poll and I can’t wait to see and compare the results.
Anyway – on with the poll:
How Long Would You Survive After SHTF?
{ 180 comments }
My wife and I have spent the past several years seperating from the grid. Our home has a well with manual pump as well as electric. We reside in an area with three growing seasons and garden all year. We have a green house, a fish pond, and raise meat rabbits. There is an abundance of game around our property and the Bay is filled with fish, crabs, and mollusks. We produce biodiesel to fuel our generator for heavy power consumption but are setting up to run our household on a solar system. Our extended family aids in the production of needed supplies, food production, security, and planning. God has blessed us with the means and determination of providing our needs.
Excellent!
We live in the north so we need to get our firewood stores up to the point that we would be able to burn as usual and not cut for a 5 year period…we are at two right now and building a shed to hold the entire 5 year load. No electricity would be an adjustment but we do have manual equipment for all of the “must have” equipment and are planning on getting oxen this year for farm work and wood hauling. We currently have about a one year supply of food stored and a large garden. I think that we could make it at least 6 months or more as we need to work more on the fuel storage.
“No more police, electricity from the pole, water from the tap, fuel from the pump, or food from the supermarket – basically everything is gone with no hope of resupply.”
This is a highly unlikely scenario that could only happen if a global catastrophe would occur (highly unlikely).
In which case no one would survive and those who did would wish they had not.
petecolorado,
Highly unlikely is open to interpretation – but one thing is certain by preparing for the worst possible event we make surviving anything less easy.
And I have to disagree with the statment “no one would survive” – kinda sounds like you’ve givenup already. Don’t.
read one second after, unlikely is not impossible.
Not preparing for a month without elec/public utilities/public services seems negligent to me and my family. i prepare as i can but still enjoy life with my family.
I feel safer having something on hand.
Nobody survived the Dark Ages, either— but we won’t tell anyone, OK?
The “highly unlikely scenario” is what MD’s asking about- and there are many who’d survive, and quite well at that, thank you.
After all, a “global catastrophe” could be anything- sunspots shutting down the ‘puter world, volcanic ash shutting out sunlight for months, earthquakes in diverse places– you get the drift: not necessarily a man-caused global disaster. Even then, there will be many who survive.
Heck, I’m still eating my Y2K supplies, haven’t even come close to digging into the SHTF stuff yet.
LOL
Shy III
As mike said, check out One Second After for a plausible SHTF scenario that is, unfortunately, within, or will soon be within, the technical abilities of several countries that don’t like us. EMP is the single greatest external threat we face as a nation.
I picked a year just off my preps,but realy depends on luck as well.
I could survive fine personally – I could homestead as long as necessary and then go abo if required. The only issue with my personal survival projection would be severe personal injury.
My concern is not for me, but for my family… the responsibility of less-prepared and under-prepared family members greatly complicate the logistics involved and increase the responsibility borne.
My wife could be trained or encouraged to do what needs to be done – very young children, while resilient, cannot travel on foot very long, and can’t contribute much to the collective effort but also require quite a bit of safeguarding and supervision.
Same here. Me and mine would be fine, but I do have parents and other family that are less prepared and will need a helping hand. This puts a greater strain on my prepping but as my production grows, I can take in more and more people and still be sustainable.
I also have to account for my neighbors who are less prepared to keep my local area stable.
It helps to find family members and neighbors who prep and make it a joint effort, kind of like the pay it forward principle. The more people we can get on board, the better off we’ll be as a whole as they’ll help their neighbors/family and so on.
I doubt if my area would remain stable, so our ammo would run out long
before my storage food.
I feel like I’d be in the same situation… Atlanta suburbs are NOT the place to be in a SHTF situation. However, I don’t intend to be here for the long-haul.
We’ve got food for a year, but living in the desert, I’m only independent of water for about 2 months. If I get a solar still set up, I could stretch that, but long term, I wouldn’t be able to grow food. This always worries me, but I used to live in Canada, where I worried about freezing. Where the hell is Utopia, anyway?
Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee.
Why Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee?
Sorry I didn’t get back earlier, but that’s where M.D. lives and it’s where I would be if it wasn’t for my wife. I was hoping M.D. would kick in so I don’t get beat up for saying where the best place to live is. It’s a combination climate,people,and survival adaptablility. Too many other things to list. Each to their own, if I insulted anyone my apology.
The one problem with that part of the country is the New Madrid fault.
Mechanic,
Thought MD lived in Washington state…
Where the H is Utopia, you ask … Globe, Arizona (caught your name as Az guy)
:-)
Been to Globe many times in my life as a youth – not happily I might add. Grandma & aunt lived there ~
I was up in Globe 3 weeks ago. Certainly cooler and more access to water than Phoenix. Nice little town, not sure what it would have looked like to a kid some decades ago.
AZGuy,
I came from the beaches of Southern California so, to me, it looked like Mars with cacti! lol
With the help of my family we could easily last better then a year as long as we didn’t have a battle with armor. It’s tough to stay legal and have the means to battle tanks. That’s when we would run to other areas. We’re ready for that too. Also if the family can stay together we would last longer. There’s power in numbers. Just keep prepping everyone.
We have stuff to get us through a year or so, but I’m in suburbs, with no real plans to leave. Longer term survival will depend partly on the neighbors and local community. If people band together for food (farming on open land here) and security, then I don’t see any real long term problems (relatively speaking, of course). If the local community turns into a ghost town, then we would probably be forced to find a more rural location with friends or family. Going it alone, seems like a hard uphill plight.
I figured 3 to 6 months without significant nutritional loss.
I based my estimate on Food I have stored and only then if I was unable to obtain more food from any source through hunting, trapping, barter, theft, or work. I also assume that the company I work for would disappear without electricity, and I would be unemployed immediately, with no access to currency, as would be the case with a total collapse.
Water would be a concern, but not a huge one here in FL. I have a well, but I can’t guarantee the electric pump would work (EMP). I’d probably run out of Bleach pretty quick, but I’ve got lots of Pool Shock, and no pool. Oranges, Grapefruit, and Blueberries grow in my yard, but only when in season. I literally have years worth of propane, but after I ran out of dry goods, I would be SOL.
Matt, don’t discount the huge value of those propane stocks! Assuming you are armed well enough to protect them from marauders, you could easily barter with them for dry goods, medicines etc… Also, think about purchasing a couple of the reverse osmosis water filters. Even murky water can be made potable with those things and they are not that expensive.
All that Propane is in those 25lbs. Propane tanks. Rednecks take them into the woods to shoot them, I take them home when I find them, and trade them in for new, full ones. I save $5 every time I find one. It takes me about 6-8 months to drain one (I only use them for the stove). Currently, I have 6 full or partially full ( including the one that’s currently in use).
I have a 20 gallon cistern in the backyard hooked up to the down spout to catch rainwater. Its usually full, relatively clean (except bird poop, leaves, and dead lizards) and if tops itself off every time it rains. I agree that a filter would be a wise investment.
I’ve also got a milling machine in my garage, but a fat lot of good it would do without electricity.
Survival if the SHTF after cottage season, we’ll be good thru the next fall and after that depending on harvest. Survival if the cottagers can make it back is dicey as they attract a lot of unwanted attention and are not going to be prepared and have few skills to add. 3 to 6 months depending on looting.
We have a year to 1 1/2 years of food stored up and have spent the last three years expanding our backyard into a garden with 38 raised beds, a greenhouse, and about 30 fruit trees as well as many types of berries for fresh food to replenish. We have water stored for two weeks and have a neighbors pond in the back of our yard and have bought a water filter to use for that and the river down the street if needed. We have wired the house for using our generator but for long term, we would love to learn and purchase solar panels and hope to do that in the next year. For the first time last year, we bought some guns and have taken some safety courses on how to use them if necessary. We figure having a huge garden and a lot of diversity on the property is necessary for not only a breakdown of the country but high inflation and food prices skyrocketing!
I wish I could have said much longer, but I picked a few weeks. I have a two-week supply of food in a container with my bug out bag, and we have about a three-month supply of freeze-dried food. But I’ve just barely started, so buying everything is putting quite a strain on the family budget, but we agreed to give up our family vacation to prep, so we should be better off in the food and water department by early June, with a six-month or more supply. I’ve ordered heirloom seeds, we have land a few miles from us, but we still don’t have a reliable plan for heating other than wood, which I don’t feel is the best option. People can see the smoke from far away.
Luckily I’ve always hunted large game, so I have several hunting rifles. I need to acquire a main battle rifle and spare, and much more ammunition. I also need to buy more gold and silver, but everything can’t be done at once, and Rome wasn’t built in a day. If given six more months, I’ll be good for the long term, if I’m not shot or injured. Big ifs under the circumstances you envision, M.D.
When I first started prepping I read somewhere, by a prepping “expert” that if you can survive a year, you can probably survive. That was my initial goal and believe I have met that goal, in terms of what I can do to prep. Luck plays a part..a nuke might make it all moot, or a zombie may shoot me dead before I see him. Barring those kinds of variables… I can survive a year…and thus believe I can survive. I am a single woman in my 50′s. ((( Don’t mess with me ))) LOL
The trick to surviving beyond the first year is to have the garden planted and canned/stored foods put up in the interim.
Don’t worry about nukes- the Dark Lord is eliminating them from America- don’t you read the news? ;)
Shy III
I have the most important thing stored, knowledge and the desire to survive. I voted indefinitely. I’ve probably got 6 months of food stored away and ample filtration ability for water. Living out in the county at the edge of a small town we have access to small game and room to garden. Plenty of ammo, superior tactics, superior planning. Oh, and I can hit my target at 500 meters plus if need be. Just need to get those neighbors prepping.
Can you hit a target quickly at 5 feet as well. That is more likely than 500 meters. Take care.
5 feet, 5 inches, its all good. I’ve been a student of martial arts for over 30 years. Positive attitude is the most important part. Adapt and overcome.
Without ANY outside “help”, 1 year based entirely upon preps, skills & luck. Quite a few years at the retreat f I could get crops & livestock established and didn’t have to compete with others to hunt/fish.
Good exercise. This is a great way to figure out what your priorities should be.
Assuming Otherwise favorable circumstances (we’re not overrun by looters or refugees and nobody suffers a severe injury), I’d give us 6 months to a year. I think we can last a year on our food storage, although meals will be pretty small and unsatisfying. Our garden isn’t big enough to fill our pantry, but it will supplement our food supply nicely. Water isn’t an immediate problem. We’ve got 2 months of stored water, with a stream and reservoir nearby, and enough bleach and iodine to purify several thousand gallons.
My biggest concerns would be security and heat in the winter. Any determined band of looters could easily overrun our home. We are undergunned and underexperienced in firearms, and our house is not easily defendable. These are issues I am working on fixing, but this requires time and money.
Heat is the other big problem. At present we are dependent on electricity and natural gas to heat our home in the winter. We can survive on secondary sources if one or the other goes out, but we haven’t yet installed a wood-burning stove as an alternate heat source. We’re working on this, too.
I will survive untill I die, wheather that is one day or 10,000 days. You could be an untimate survivor and on the first of wtshtf day a building could fall on you and you would be dead.
I will survive as long as I can, I will do what I need to do to for family, me and as many people around me as I can untill there is nolonger breath in my body!!!!!!
I mentally prepared & can survive as long as it takes – 1 week to 5 years, it doesn’t really matter to me and can pretty much adapt to most anything.
I am prepped with the fundamentals as suggested by Creekmore, 8 months worth of food and water supply so far, got plenty of ammo and a fantastic 17 year old son who is a natural born survivalist (he’s been reading survival books since he was 9 & loving it). My wife & daughter are no slouches either. Clothing is organized as well.
I’ve set up a couple of additional contingency plans as well because I do not like surprises or stress and always prepare for worst case.
Preparation eliminates stress ~
i picked forever and a day. i live in an area that is warm enough to grow,10 months out of the year. im near a very large bayou,dozens of spring fed ponds and a very large lake. there is wild game to the point its nearly a nuisance.ive about 2 years of food stored. my wife and i both are highly skilled at firearms and hitting what we aim at. the only thing i can forsee resulting in our demise would be the lack of health care.we are both in our fiftys and have lived exciting and dangerous lives. the strain of that living has manifested itself in a few medical maladies that would be diffacult to overcome without medical aid. oh well. if i die while im typeing this,no regrets . weve had a blast.
If the images created by Bill Frostchen in One Second After were to come true, I suspect that a year or more would be optimistic. All of what I’ve learned and all that I have put aside and planned for might shorten the chances of survival if rampant disease or total lawlessness were to happen. I’ve planned for these things, but, as in One Second After, those who organized into civil groups faired best. The key, I suspect, is to survive as a group (family, friends, religious communities). The Mormons, for example, will be among the longest survivors.
Family is the first focus. Fortunately, I have some family members who have already taken themselves off the grid and my decades of preaching preparedness have been well received by them. We have some contingency plans together. However, a few in my family have found me only slightly amusing and they don’t even have as much as a flashlight. I have put aside for them – they will be needed at the right time.
I totally agree with (W) and Dustin. Survival for me is because of my family. SHTF will be a very hostile and topsy-turvy. Hopefully, eventually there will be restructuring that leads to some degree of stability. I’ve been grasping the moral and ethical issues of what can and cannot be done in survival situations as it relates to one’s humanity.
In some scenarios, hunting is not viable. Most likely the environment deteriorates to cause mass die off of humans and animals either by natural pestilence or manmade causes. Remaining animals will be foraging on corpses. Lakes and rivers will be polluted with pathogens and other diseases. Infection and epidemics will cross over from one species to another. Maybe only the ocean will be safe food source because of its natural disinfectant from its salinity. Maybe even the shoreline will not be safe for foraging because the rivers will carry rotting debris with pathogens as it empties to the beaches. I think it’s good to include Nuclear, Biological and Chemical kits with defensive and hunting gears.
Available hunting areas will be overcome by groups and end up as fiefdoms. It will be highly guarded and impossible to get in. The only thing that might be viable is opportunitic hunting, those that are available as opportunity comes, shooting a feral dog or other domesticated animals on the loose.
In fishing or any food gathering activities, maybe half will be providing security for those who are engaged in gathering from hostile. In the critical stages, exposure while food gathering might not worth the risk.
My family will be relying on our food storage complimented by any harvest grown from a green house and other self contained environment. It might not even be safe to grow plants outdoors because of contaminations and fall out, or it could attract too much attention and compromise the shelter and its contents. I think the most critical stage is the first three to six months after the SHTF. It is safer to hunker down and rely on food storage supplemented with sprouts, container grown greens and supplemental vitamin pill. In Ragnar Benson’s books, he proposes the rule of three of planning. Always plan for three different ways to achieve objectives including food sources and always expect for the worse and hope for the best.
Peace and God bless to all.
Survive? Depends. If neighbors and/or government overran my position (probably under pretense of starvation or ‘hoarder’) then I wouldn’t last very long.
That’s my biggest fear. Left to myself, I can probably make it quite awhile. I don’t think any of us will hold out against a determined and well-equipped mob, especially a government-sanctioned one.
i belive that if a government or some outher type of mob came buy my neck of the woods (a very litle marine base/camp) will have tp go trough one hell of the fite theres about 40 or 50 combat vets there full time(including me) all well trained
I grew up camping, hunting,and fishing. I personally think I could survive forever as long as there are fish in the stream and game in the woods. My only problem would be starting a fire consistently.
““No more police, electricity from the pole, water from the tap, fuel from the pump, or food from the supermarket – basically everything is gone with no hope of resupply.”
This is a highly unlikely scenario that could only happen if a global catastrophe would occur (highly unlikely).
In which case no one would survive and those who did would wish they had not.”
-petecolorado
I couldn’t disagree more with this statement. I have lived for extended periods with none of the above, and could do so again. More to the point, I did so in an overcrowded world which has all the attendant disadvantages. Most people think about “zombie hordes”, daily gunbattles, etc. when considering TEOTWAWKI. I don’t think it will be that way at all.
Pete is right about one thing: MOST people would not survive. The overpopulation problem would go away within a year or two. Most of those who did survive would do so by thinking locally, and cooperating with their neighbors.
A large portion of the world actually lives this way currently. Go to the extreme rural areas of Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, New Guinea etc. and you will see people doing just that. If you can’t live in such a world, then OK, you probably won’t survive. Which will just make it easier for those who have no problem with such a life.
The key to survival in such a world is knowledge. Think about it: people survive in villages with no knowledge of how to purify water or increase the yield of their crops. Imagine how much better their lives would be with just that small amount of knowledge!
One thing I discovered when homesteading from scratch, was that every small incremental improvement made a huge difference in my comfort level.
Tracy, I am so glad you posted this comment because you are 100% correct, thank you. Survival is about contextual shifts to adapt & adopt to a new situation. When you go to rural Mexico and they do not have electricity, you simply live without electricity and do as the locals have done for many years, live a normal life.
The problem with most people is they are viewing things from their current condition of having so much at their disposal – like grocery stores, piped in water, electricity etc., and then imagine it all being gone, panic and say – now what? I’ve stored all of this canned food but the power is gone so I cannot use my electric can opener, what do I do? (For those who are literal, that was a joke).
Regardless of anybody’s current economic condition in America, we are very spoiled – relative to most of the world, and that has created a sense of entitlement. We have the right to go to WalMart in our car … ad nauseam.
I agree with you that the solution to the problem is knowledge. Knowledge brings about confidence and diminished stress & panic and is far and away the most important part of any preparation.
So the question was ‘how long can you survive?’ It solely upon your mental state and conditioning – everything will line up accordingly.
Indeed, you are right about the fact that others living in rural Mexico and such places live without all the comforts we are used to in our culture. They still have the knowledge to care for themselves on a daily basis without the luxuries that we are spoiled by. They would probably do much better under SHTF conditions than we would. On the other hand, the places you mentioned don’t have the severe winters we face in our northern latitudes. I think the model we should look at for our survival is in the rural north. Unfortunately, the rural northern latitudes probably won’t support the population that will need the resources. There might even be a reverse flow at our southern border.
(W),
As far a rural Mexico, they live daily in what we would consider the aftereffects of the S hitting the fan, therefore their lives would be little affected.
How did the American Indians survive in your area for hundreds of years prior to our convenience revolution?
I subscribe to the adage “what one man can do another can do”. (I would have been a bit more PC including woman but man cannot give birth!) That being said, I will not move to the colder climates!
The American Indians who lived here for perhaps thousands of years had thousands of years of unbroken knowledge of how to survive here. Most of the people I know here, including the decendents of the same tribes of which I speak, have all lost that knowledge. When SHTF, we, along with the Indians who live here now, will not be equipped with the skills and the knowledge to adapt easily. They also numbered in the hundreds of thousands rather than the millions we have here today. Tracy was right about the “knowledge” aspect, but counting on all the others here to be knowledgeable and skillful to prevent chaos after SHTF is wishful thinking at best.
The suggestion is not to move to another climate or part of the world, but to point out the dilemma we all face, here in the northern latitudes, with state of dependence we have on our modern conveniences. The dilemma isn’t that you or I don’t have the knowledge or the skills, it’s that most of the others here don’t. Our best chances are to encourage others to be as well prepared as we are.
I am mentally prepared and physically capable enough to take whatever I need from your smoking, dead body. And with 300 million + of you out there, it looks to be a record harvest.
Don’t forget — some of us will definitely shoot back, and many will shoot first.
Just some food for thought.
Shy III
Ditto my brother Shy’s reply. Many people WILL shoot first. Don’t think for a half second I will allow predators like you anywhere near my means to support my wife and six children, or that of my brothers or neighbors.
Idiots like you won’t last long, Mike. When you come to steal from me, PLEASE come well armed with shiny new guns and lots of ammo. I like new guns…
Justin
III
Mike,
You are a blithering fool who loves to live vicariously behind a computer and throw out stupidity. It’s a fact – if you don’t do what you describe now in any relative way, you won’t do it in the future.
You are a weak, probably excessively overweight simp that will end getting shot in the first week after the SHTF by a 5′ tall woman from whom you tried to steal a purse and good riddance.
Do us all a favor and take your bravado to the nearest gangland and tell them how it is and what you’ll do. I have no doubt that MD will post your YouTube result.
if you come by my neck of the woods (a little ultra small marine base that i consider a camp) then your retarded…i can just picture it a guy in full camo with a tricked out AR walking all “tactical” thinking “ima gunna go loot the marine base” wail im just siting in a guard tower lafing my ass off.then i blow his brains out and see whut stuff he got!
I’m putting a well this year and am stocking up on food, ammunition and trade goods. Think cheap bottled whiskey, tinned tobacco and rolling papers.
One thing to keep in mind, and this was pointed out to me by someone else..if you have the means to take care of yourself, if there are local relief agencies available after a SHTF event, make sure you go to those shelters. You do not want to stand out by not going to whatever relief is available.
I figure we can pull through – if we don’t get over run first. Got food, water for the first two weeks then its skilz vs amateurs. Trouble is, amateurs get lucky sometimes, and there’s just the few of us right now…
I think the key is building a community you trust, with skilz that are valuable…need iron, fuel, food, and water. I have scientists and sweathogs in my circle, a few hunters…if we don’t kill each other first, we might make it.
I figure between the cattle and the grain and fodder I have on hand, I can keep a fairly large group (20-25 depending whether I can swap some cattle for more grain) going for a year. Beyond that it depends on what kind of crops we can grow retrofitting equipment built to be hauled by tractors to be hauled by cattle.
Like LakeLili, my chances of survival are much better if cottagers can’t get back north. The local farms can easily support the non-farming local population for a year. The influx of city people means fighting, and frankly, any fighting lowers your chance of survival.
We are lucky in one sense Dash as the cottaging population has to get through the 905 first and the many of the populations that have settled there come from countries where fighting was a norm in their countries of origin… Perhaps we’ll luck out and they’ll thin the ranks of cottagers for us…
For those who have not read Deep Winter yet, author Thomas Sherry has written a fascinating look at the first two weeks after the SHTF in Spokane. You can write him at deepwinter2007@comcast.net and ask for a copy and he’ll send a pdf. His second book coninues the story and is called Shatter – he’ll also send you the pdf on request. His third book, Remnant, is on his blog http://deepwinterstory.blogspot.com/
I’m suburban dweller up north.. only one season to grow food. I’d probably last a few weeks in a total breakdown.
However, the worst scenario’s of SHTF would not be promising for 99.9% of humanity.
Think super-volcano eruption… there are several overdue.. esp. Yellowstone (every 600K years and 40K overdue). Or a major volcano with sustained output for a few years… or even a limited nuclear exchange say a couple of dozen or more cities anywhere in Middle-East or South Asia.
Under any of the above… its global nuclear winter… cold or very cold everywhere ! mass species dieoff… except for small rodents and cockroaches… no outdoor crops for a decade or a century even… forget your garden or local game.
Northerners with sufficient energy stocks, and supply chain (gas, wood) and insulated homes would last the longest… warm world dwellers would simply die fast in subzero temps even at the equator. Even a massive 90% dieoff from cold would still leave 600 million plus humans with very limited food supplies.. enough for a year maybe ?
Even if some organization endured… assume best case: rationing, greenhouse food production, scavenging, coastal fishing, fish farms… continued energy production (oil, gas, nuclear)… starvation would slowly killoff most of the survivors within a decade. Humanity really is dependent on massive sustained modern food production… lost of course due to a global freeze. Take modern food production away and North America can support at best a few hundred thousand maybe a million tops.
On the positive side… a few million survivors most likely Icelanders, Scandanavians, Alaskans, New Zealanders… small hardy cold-weather populations all with access to energy… and fish protein… and with LOTS of green houses.. would be the ones who’d survive and repopulate the earth. Think lots of blondes !!
Sarah Palin would certainly be a qualified to be the President of the survivors.
Overall ? not fun but what the F* shit happens ! the earth really is in a very stable pleasant period.. enjoy it while it lasts ! and thank God Iran still doesn’t have the bomb.
You are so right about the volcano… the travel industry is having kittens over the one in Iceland. Five days of disrupted travel has put several airlines close to the point of collapse and there has been an abrupt halt in the making of travel plans – a friend told me that she has booked one flight since Friday – she usually book about 30 a day. An economic crahs can be caused by anything and we are so tiend that the domino effect can be devestating.
Those that think they will survive as a island most likely will not. If you can get past the first several months and then find/build a community then the chances are good. Otherwise, unless you live in a sub-tropic area with lots of water access it’s hard to survive as a one-off for too many years.
I’m 68 years old, arthritic, and dependent on medication. I could probably last about a month. If civilization isn’t back after a month, screw it – it’s safer underground. Your mileage may vary.
Unfortunately Ellen, I think you are probably right.
When I think about prepping I concentrate on my kids. I prepare for them, now – and their needs 10 years from now. I give little thought to my parent’s or in-laws any more. I have tried repeatedly to help them wake up and see the world around them and prepare (even if just buying extra groceries or an extra refill on their meds) but they refuse and insist that I’m nuts. They have totally forgotten the lessons of their parents and the Great Depression.
As for my family, we do have a couple members that take daily medication. However, I have embarked on a holistic mission this year to search for better, more natural ways to help them. To learn all I possibly can about natural healing. As I learn, I’m making a notebook with this knowledge for my family in case something would happen to me. It’s quite the wild ride – combining EMT training and an herbalist point of view, but I am assured that long-term, this is a valuable skill be utilize and pass on later.
Congratulations on taking up holistic medicine. Before long those daily medications will be a thing of the past.
PND,
I am a firm believer in the holistic approach to health. Going to an MD to treat a symptom with pills is criminal.
Maybe you could do a guest post with your top 10 favorite holistic/diet books for the lay person. It could be a wonderful contribution for many.
I chose “Less than a day” – I have pre-existing conditions. Without meds I may not last for a year. “Less than a day” maybe an exaggeration but that is how I see it.
Our society is full to the brim with helpless victims with lots of stuff they will not need after their weak asses give up. I’ll just live off that bounty.
Yea, sure you will tough guy.
“helpless victims” don’t have any “stuff” I want during teotwawki!!!!!!!!
A fridge full of rotted food, a new Blu-Ray player and a dozen discs to go with it, new luxury car, and a bunch of guys like you fighting over a couple of expired cans of cream of mushroom soup that all the other looters missed.
Good Luck with That!
I sure hope you can tell the difference between the “helpless” and those that won’t be advertising their carefully planned storage. Otherwise, you might receive a bounty from the end of a .270! But good luck with that!
Great come back PrepperMom!
i the SHTF i would rely on my military training
got enough food for about 6 month,artesan well, plentiful elk
and MORE GUNS THEN I CAN COUNT!
If it was “simply” a complete breakdown of the grid, then I would be fine. Not happy, but fine. I live in CA and know how to use the acorns, find water, and I could trap squirrels and forage for various plant foods. For clothes I might have to resort to furs eventually… It would all work itself out. Violence is a different matter and no one can guarentee they could survive that.
I hit the “forever and a day” button.
if i was you id be worried about the gangs
after all its CA
As an insulin-dependent diabetic, I’ll only last as long as I can buy, beg or steal insulin. It must be refrigerated, and even then, it eventually goes bad. I always keep several months supply on hand, but after that…
We’ve got enough supplies to last several weeks in place. Even though I live in an urban area, my house is relatively defensible. We’d be a tough nut to crack and I’d respond violently enough to make them want to go after an easier target. And you really, really don’t want my wife shooting at you!
After that, I’ll concentrate on getting my wife to a stable community of survivors (family is not much help). If I can do that, I’ll feel like I’ve done as much as I can.
In a urban or even suburban environment long-term survival is unlikely for a unit (family-social) of more than 2-3 people. At first people will cooperate minimally – at least not immediately attacking each other. When the realization that social controls (police- church – disapproval of neighbors) are gone – then watch out. Snipers or other hidden shooters will likely render travel very difficult (a’la Sarajevo). Foraging parties will be actively hunting out “hoarders” – translated as those with the foresight to stockpile supplies. If you are well supplied you probably aren’t super mobile. If tied to one spot – guess what, they’ll lay a siege to get your stuff. (And try to capture a family member to compel your surrender – which will translate into all your deaths) For all the talk about shooting all who threaten you – what, your guns are silent? Gunfire will attract attention – even with thousands of rounds of ammo you’ll run out of bullets before targets (the starving or greedy).
How vicious will be the fight for the last two cans of soup in a city of over a million people? Hiding will be the only viable option.
No more police, electricity from the pole, water from the tap, fuel from the pump, or food from the supermarket – basically everything is gone with no hope of resupply.
Interesting scenario to say the least.
I’m a realist. While some small number of people may survive more than a couple of years, I imagine the number making it past 5-10 years is likely to be close to zero. Everyone I’ve read (in books, articles, posts) seems to think their thorough planning and superior preparation can overcome Murphy’s law. I’m understating the situation by saying it’s going to take a whole lot of outdoor labor to keep your life going and all the knowledge and planning in the world is not going to mitigate many of the risks. An unlucky swing of the axe while cutting firewood, less than perfect sound discipline while on patrol or when hunting, a failure in your or friends radio just when you need it to summon help to fend off a raiding party, one of the kids doing something stupid that exposes your location/OPSEC/preps, a family member somehow ingesting a bug that your backwoods doc can’t properly diagnose or treat, a nasty gunshot wound, stepping on a punji stick, etc. Medical supplies will gradually be used up and drug effectiveness will expire etc. The list of ways to die or become disabled is nearly endless.
I’m not saying don’t prepare because those that do have a much better opportunity to influence when they cash in their chips. My point is that despite your very best efforts, you will not likely dodge Murphy’s law for multiple decades and die in your 80′s as you might today. Know now that your very best efforts may extend your life but may not keep you and your family intact for as long as you might imagine.
Also, consider getting Rosetta Stone language lessons for Chinese. If you think this nation with all its resources will be left alone for years so it can revert back to the agricultural 1800′s, you haven’t been paying attention.
I would not live “Forever and a Day” even if there is no SHTF event.
If the S TRULY HTF I might last, at best 10 days. I have end stage kidney failure and require dialysis. I also have congestive heart failure and require an array of expensive prescription drugs to stay alive, as well as oxygen about 35 percent of the time. I represent an invalid population that would be among the very first to die once our heavily technology-dependent support systems crash. C’est la guerre…
Have about enough food & water for a few months. Once that’s gone, so are we. And once anyone finds out, that’s gone.
M.D., Check your site meter, Instapundit linked to you.
At least several weeks. The growing season where I live is long, and we can usually harvest some items (like beans) twice in a summer. We live right in a coastal wetland, so water and game (deer, fox, turkey, waterfowl) are also plentiful.
I have to say the biggest determinant would be our neighbors. We’ve got a pretty close-knit group; and sharing resources would come naturally. Having weathered our fair share of hurricanes, I can say from experience that this relationship is greater than or equal to any store of resources.
Once the canned food,dry food, and MREs ran our after six months, that is if we are only eathing for two – the wife and I. Then I’d have to do something like grow a garden or scavenge for food.
That is of course if the looters and moochers don’t try to steal it. Living in the suburbs this is something I keep in mind, and have hidden some food where I can. About a weeks worth.
Really depends on what kind of “S” “HTF”
I put forever and a day because i refuse to give up. Based on current preps. I have a year’s worth of food, a fish pond, plenty of medical supplies including antibiotics etc. I have some solar and batteries so my life might not be the lap of luxury, but i will get by.
andy:
be careful with those medical supplies. most antibiotics have a short shelf life. once they go bad, they range from doing nothing to causing renal failure. read up, watch labels and in the meantime, think about planting an herb garden instead.
I picked a year since I figured on 20 rounds of Ammo per day expenditure for barter, hunting, and zombies. 20×375=7300
Current inventory.
(.22-5500, 9mm-500, 12 gauge-500, 7.62×39-1000, Total= 7500
200 extra to spare over the allotted total required.
After that, or probably before that I assume that I’d be taken out in the mayhem. Or maybe I’ll just swallow one when I figure out I can’t get cable anymore and no DVD deliveries.
Regarding food, 3 months worth, but I have land to hunt and growing space.
As for the rest of the preps I’ll count on pandemics to thin the herd along with me and not worry about the long term.
Don’t worry, be happy. :)
heres my ammo calculation
308 dam near 100,000
223 near 1,000,000
9mm near 500,000
if your wondering i live on a marine base
correction: 20 x 365 = 7300
Try not to waste your life worrying.
No more police, electricity from the pole, water from the tap, fuel from the pump, or food from the supermarket – basically everything is gone with no hope of resupply.”
This is a highly unlikely scenario that could only happen if a global catastrophe would occur (highly unlikely).
In which case no one would survive and those who did would wish they had not.
—————————Wrong, it would not take a ‘global’ catastrophe…or how about a corrupt government, who wants to control your food, energy, salt, healthcare rationing…we are there.
There are many SHTF scenarios that have some measurable probability of occurrence every day.
Some of them are so catastrophic that very few of the 300 plus million people now in the US would survive any one of them. I am pretty sure that the effects of that scenario, or scenarios, will not in any way be abated by the hoarding of 7300 rounds of small arms ammunition.
If, for instance, the Yellowstone Caldera were to erupt as a full blown super volcano, everyone and every living thing within 500 kilometers of the initial explosion will be killed immediately. That means that if you are hiding out in the woods in Washington State, you aren’t safe. Spokane? Forget about it. But that isn’t the worst of it. What goes up into the air will not come down for years, decades, maybe. Prevailing winds aloft will move the ash cloud east and the west coast will be relatively clear for at least a couple of weeks. After that the ash cloud sill have percolated throughout the upper atmosphere, cutting off the surface from the majority of sunlight. Then it will get cold, plants will not grow without artificial light sources and artificial heat, and then everyone else dies slowly. This is of course predicated on the eruption being short and violent. If, as in earlier examples, the eruption continues for as little as a year (it could be measured in centuries), then the time to extinction of humans is accordingly reduced.
The carry capacity of this continent is entirely based on organized infrastructure and known technology, and enabled by a highly specialized and interlocked organization of humans that we like to call the “community”. Its most important pillar, and most vulnerable link, is the nation-wide ability to distribute electrical power on demand,. That demand is met by real time base and peak load generators, because you cannot store it; we convert the potential energy of chemical, thermal and hydraulic energy to electrical power and it is used as it is produced. The reason I point this out is to remind those of you who may have forgotten just how fragile the system is and how quickly it all comes crashing down if the electrical supply fails. Remember the NE blackout in 2004? Instant paralysis, especially in the systems that distribute food, fuels, and other vital commodities to market, especially to urban markets.
If humans survive on this continent after an event that meets only mild SHTF conditions, it will be because, once again, a community of specialists will arise that will face the challenges as a team, and provide a framework where the group survives and prospers. Neo-cavemen hiding in a bunker in the North West will only delay their own extinction a trifle, and will tend to self identify themselves as unfit to join the larger, more productive effort.
In summation, I say that you better hope that the system we have now hangs together, because without it, you are screwed. (Disclaimer: It ain’t perfect, and it ain’t always cowboy friendly, but it has the built in ability to provide new technologies that can meet problems you haven’t dreamed of yet. Without it, humans tend to thin out, and die old men at 40, which is where we were in those halcyon days of the mid-19th century)
B Dubya you’re right on the “big” one. If, as you postulate, Yellowstone goes bang and continues going bang for even a month, humanity will be extinct within five years. If, however, something of lesser magnitude but equal devastation occurs, then the results of human extinction is not necessarily so. Indeed, within the area of, and geographically near, ground zero of a devastating catastrophe everyone will be killed outright, and those downwind will be affected the most. Not so with people living in areas far away from what I’ll call “the blast zone” for want of a better choice of words. Most people will die all over the globe, but not all. There will be places of human habitation and the remnants of civilization still chugging away. Even those people won’t last long without having made some preparation for their own survival.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that 10% of those people had prepared for any eventuality and were able to continue. They had food put up, a water supply, and the ability to either farm, or pick from food growths, or both, and there was game and/or fish available. Those people will be the only ones left alive after 10 years, and they will be the folk who repeople planet Earth. They’ll fashion boats and go exploring. And, just where is that place? I’ve done some research into just this thing, how long could you, would you, survive, and the people left on Earth to continue humanity would be located at, or near, the Equator all across the planet. That’s a precious small land area if you totaled it all up; but, enough.
But, what if the disaster that occurred was much, much, smaller, how many then would survive? And, where would they be? Well, of course, it all depends upon what exactly the disaster was, of which there as many a scenario as the mind can imagine. I’ve read most of the entries on this question, see a lot of people who think they could survive on what they’ve put up, have water and source of heat for warmth during cold seasons, or live in sunny climes. Yes, those people would be able to make it; however, what most of you have alluded to but few have focused upon are the rest of the non-prepared. Do you think people who are also trying to survive but have nothing laid up won’t come looking for anything, anything at all, that could stretch their survival even one more day? They’re referred to as marauders when in actually they’re your neighbors, and they want to live, too. You might try to help them, and in the doing, deplete your own stores and shorten your own survival capabilities. You might fight them off, if you have the wherewithal to do so; but, can you stave off huge numbers of your starving neighbors trying to stay alive? How many of you are there? Do you have your own army in that survival compound you’ve established? If you do, then you’ll make it, and if you don’t, you’ll be overrun and maybe killed for what you have, and maybe not. At that point, you’ve just been drafted into marauder camp.
I’m ready to survive, have been putting up foodstuffs and equipage, including firearms and ammo for years, so I know I could make it if, that big if, nobody came to take it away from me. To that extent, I have been enlisting my neighbors to also prepare, to act as a community, to help each other, and above all help each other to resist outsiders who are doing nothing more than trying to survive themselves. Cruel, yes, but if you’re not thinking that way, you’re not going to make it. Not only prepare, unite as well. Train yes, acquire knowledge as much as possible, but get your neighbors to the point where large numbers of people can make it, and defend each other in the doing.
One suggestion prepare hiding places for the bulk of your food and other essentials but leave some in sight in case people (or the government) decided to force you to ‘share’, otherwise I agree with you.
Carmen – This is the method of tactical deception I have advocated for a long time. I suggest hiding your “rotated out” food (or older food), but REALLY hiding your real stash in more than one location.
Another good reason for doing this is that if family knows that you can/preserve food, they always seem to think that they should be going home with a few jars. This is especially bad during the sugaring-off period when they all want fresh maple syrup. :-)
Who voted for less than a day. Wow. You must have no basic skills
I think it’s more likely that they have medical conditions and have accepted the fact that they are already living beyond their body’s means. It’s not a fun thing to think about. But hopefully, they will not suffer should the SHTF.
No electricity, no water, no fuel, no cops? Been there, done that. Last time was named Ike, and I expect there will be another, maybe before I die (I’m 70).
I too have guns (10), ammo (about 8000 rds), and pantry food (about 3 mo). I keep about a month’s worth of potable water on hand, and usually have 30 to 40 gallons of gasoline on hand. I also have close to a one year supply of vitamins and OTC pain killers.
If I had to run, I have family who has two wells (one on a windmill), land and fishing, and reloading equipment. For that matter, my neighbor has a bus, but fuel would be a problem after 300 miles or so.
For that matter, if the S doesn’t HTF with no warning, I can easily add more food, ammo, water, and gasoline. Maybe six months was the wrong choice. It’s either one day or several years.
With no resupply at all? As long as nobody shoots me, at least a year. “No resupply” is hard to imagine, since hunting and trading are available.
We’ve got a good year’s worth of basic food stocked, use it, rotate and increase it; it would get pretty monotonous but winter before last I lived on it just to check feasibility. I lost weight, but survival was never in doubt. We’re completely off-grid and have a good well, plus access to at least five more through our network of like-minded neighbors. Everybody’s got weapons, ammo and practice, but of course if Lord Humungous shows up there are no guarantees.
after my pot runs out, what’s the point of living?
shtf scenarios:
if you are in a city, it is over.
if you live on the border of mexico, get ready for a plague of locust-like migration. (in all honesty an earthquake of 7.0+ in mexico city would put 10 million or more mexicans in the sw us, in less than a month)
two invaluable tools:
dynamite or a decent size fishing net. the dynamite is a limited resource, but still could provide a massive amount of food, depending on fish population density.
if you found fish, it means you have also found water. Any type of water can be filtered, with the exception of radioactive contaminated. same principle as a still…boil, then collect the evaporated stuff. (add a modest amount of salt to taste).
a good tool to have:
a refractive metal ‘dish’, with a hole in the center. I’m not sure what the exact name is, but you can light a fire, or even cook with it.
it never runs out, it doesn’t matter if it gets wet. a piece of paper can be ignited in less than a minute, under good solar conditions.
if we are talking a super volcano though, you might as well chuck it like a frisbee: in the case of a super volcano, the only source of food will be fish and the grain one has stock piled. strongly suggest using tree bark to ‘cut’ the meager supply of grain with…worth brushing up on what tree bark tastes like and are also edible in one’s area. fiber one bars are a little heavy on the chickory roots, but the pricinple is sound.)
I have a couple of observations. If we had a SHTF scenario as envisioned by M.D., unless it was a worldwide event, you can rest assured that we will have company in the likely form of a Sino/Russian incursion. The rest of the World will not tolerate 2000 ICBM’s just waiting to be launched, or various other nukes that are more portable, including those on submarines and bombers.
You can also bet the farm that the trillions of dollars of oil, gas, coal and other natural resources we possess would be very tempting for a foreign power to develope and use, even though we currently don’t have the sense to do it.
Of course, what this means to the prepper is that you need to be flexible, prepare as much as possible, and be ready to act. Order will be restored, one way or the other, but I pray it is the way that leads us back to government based on our Constitution. In any event, the population base will be much smaller, and much easier to govern.
itll be a cold day in hell when were ruled by a dan commie !
thats why my dad fled the ussr
As a Floridian, basic hurricane preparedness can provide you with what you would need to survive six months or longer, in my humble opinion.
There is one simple fact most people seem to forget,,,,man is not an island.
This country was founded by like-minded people pursuing a mutual goal of prosperity and freedom.When that society breaks down individuals would become the victims of group attacks for resources.The ability to form positive relationships with neighbors and members of your community become paramount.Stockpiling inexpensive items like portable water filtering devices($70), water filter drinking straws($10),Sterno stoves & canned fuel($15),candles & matches(cheap), all of these things could be distributed to your community.
Since most people won’t own grain mills, rice would be an inexpensive food source that could be bought and stored in large quantities for distribution to your neighbors.
Your odds of surviving the aftermath of a catastrophe are greatly improved with the help you would receive from your neighbors.Get to know them before a crisis occurs.By helping them you are helping yourself.(There may be a doctor down the street).If the government fails to get the country back on its feet in a reasonable amount of time, then the charity you have shown your community will be the initiative for people in your area to get up, dust themselves off, and start over.
This idea is based on the desire of law abiding citizens uniting to provide security for themselves and their families.The criminal element will begin to wreak havoc almost immediately following a disaster. A community effort will be needed to deal with this problem.
I have enough whiskey to last a life time. I should be okay.
http://liquorlocusts.com/the-whiskey-standard
… it could be dangerous as well having lots of new friends! :-)
You will never be 100% prepared no matter how much you prep.But not doing anything you may as well dig your own grave,do something for you and your family.At my home when the stuff happens WE WILL PRAY FIRST TO GOD then lock and load for we dont have a clue as to what will happen.For supplies we are good for over 6 months maybe to a year if family dont come running.Any way this is my take on the subject.Great article MD and good input from the commentors.
JC, thank for your insight.
To me, the hardest part is maintaining one’s humanity especially in the dark moments of survival. There is no question when it comes to protecting loved ones and issues of self preservation. I have no second thought shooting someone who assaults my wife or my daughter.
It’s another thing to shoot someone for a can of beans or consciously with holding life sustaining help to a pregnant woman. Will I just turn my back and pretend not to see someone helpless abused? There are “grey areas” where we need to pray for discernment so we can remain humble of heart and not be hardened; we pray for guidance that even in the darkest hour we will do the right thing.
Who knows, that person turned away is there by providence in ways that cannot be explained. Who knows the individual saved from savagery or hunger will one day help and protect a loved one? There is a quotation from Edmund Burke that says “The only necessary for evil to succeed is for good men to do nothing”. We are also obliged to be a beacon of goodness in time of upheaval. Survival preparedness also includes strengthening spiritually.
That pregnant woman may be a shill for someone hiding along side the
road. Remember Vietnam? Or how about the new female jihadists?
To finish my thought, I don’t believe you can survive by being the good
guy . When the SHTF you are going to have to choose one or the other.
Reminds me of Survivors the Series. The only one with a lick of sense
on the show is Tom the criminal who will kill and do it quickly without
worrying over the morality of it all.
Hard to say right now were stuck in the “burbs” and with no space to garden or store a ton of food for long term and thing can get intresting in a hurry we, had a event two years ago here in southern OHIO where millions were without power for several week, some for to almost two months and the stores sold out of every battery generator and Coleman fuel. Food spoiled, at home and in stores. The gas station I was working at was looted, when customers demanded items that we couldn’t sell because the registers lock the cash drawer as soon as the lights went out, no fuel for vehicals.
It took almost a week before the local utility said anything for they had only two repair trucks in southern western Ohio and they had to wait for out of state help. Many municipalities had no water due to the lack of power, to run the pumps to the water towers and phone service was dying after their battery banks that power the phone system, both land line and cell phone ran out of juice.
The governor could hardly send a truck of water to some counties, but no food stuffs, generators for city water plants, nothing and things started to get ugly quickly. I was luck our power came back on in 2 weeks but other had to wait over a month to get theirs back on.
Are problems were some people in the family throw out stuff that was useful, let things like Coalman fuel go bad and not replace it and stored no batteries and thus when I bought some after the disaster just for them to use them in their walkman or some other trifle electronic turd and scream at me for putting them where they could get at them!!!>:(
So we barely made it, and I can’t imagine several more.
Rifleman 336 – Thank you for this story. It is a real-life example of what other scenarios may look like. Hopefully, those in your area have learn to be better prepared. May I ask what event caused such a massive interruption of power?
Thanks you for this illustration. In August 2003 we lost our power for 10 days and that was a challenge [2003 North East Blackout]. After the third day, the grocery store in town had a “fire sale” and sold off all the veg, meat and dairy. We had huge community BBQs – good for local conversation. By day six, when they finally got power back, parts of town (pop 1800) had started to blockade roads. We were about 10 miles out but the farmers at the top of our road were questioning all cars coming in and by Day 8 you had to prove you lived there or be hydro/police/fire/ambulance to get in – and they were discussing not letting cottagers in. The power came back on on Day 10.
At the time I was working at a hotel. We had guests who stayed all ten days and refused to pay saying we had “ruined” their vacations! We had guests who stayed until they could established that everything was okay at home and then left paying their bills in full – even refusing an offered discount. It all has to do with comprehension of a situation and how “entitled” the individual feels.
To me all of it was illustrative to how the community would respond with a large scale dissolution of services – except that I think the run on the stores and the bloackades would happen faster. I also think the it showed the difference that the local population saw between themselves and the “cottagers” or seasonal poperty users.
I believe we all struggle depending upon our locations, training, culture, willingness, hobbies, skills, facilities, neighbors, family or friends & level of preparations available to us. I have about a year of food & survival gear; unfortunately I live in NW suburbia. I would try my best, if possible GOOD quickly to our friend’s cabin several hours away or another which is six hours away, depending upon the circumstances. I have 4×4 truck with trailer and all terrain tires, whereas I would attempt to take the pipeline roads out of town if possible. I could have all my preparations loaded quickly if warranted, as everything is in plastic containers & buckets. Have good ole cutting torch or bolt cutters for those nasty gates if needed. Winter could be another story in itself. Otherwise I have 25,000 rounds for the unexpected if hunkering down. I would not last long if things got out of control perhaps. I am really considering splitting up my provisions, in the event I needed to leave my bunker; we would travel at night with our packs along the inner edges of forest land near power lines & pipelines to my secondary location. But one never knows what type of disaster to prepare for exactly, except prepare for the unexpected. If the economy was to fall apart, we would have enough notice to get out, as I have 100 days of vacation stock piled if needed to return to employment if it still exists, so no big deal. EMP or nuclear is another condition with different strategies most likely. Be positive & prepare! One year ago I had many basics, but no food preps. I worked hard to prepare once my mind was set, making a list of goals each week.
GREAT
keep buyen bullets!
I like the comments. You better believe security & personal injury are HUGE issues. Their will be a lot of desperate people ! My biggest weakness (right now is ammo). I am working on that, I also know a guy who reloads his own ammo (but he still needs supplies to do that). I hope to learn from him in a couple of months.
I found some cheap ($1) door alarms and “pin pull” alarms at the dollar store. These could greatly help you if you are defending your site. At some point you have to sleep, and you are limited by family members to “stand the watch.” Alarming doors and setting up trips wires would help. Also consider learning how to make (or buy an alcohol still). Alcohol can be added to gas as a fuel & is great for disinfectiing. It can also be used for bartering during long term SHTF. Just be aware, you need ATF permit to do it legally, and you need high proof low water to use as a fuel (there are many good books on the subject, I recommend David Blume’s “alcohol can be a gas”) You can build and own (or buy – I recommend “milehidistilling” to buy) an alcohol still without a permit, AS LONG AS YOU DON”T USE IT, if you don’t want ATF involved. Then when SHTF, you can blow off ATF, they will be busy!! Good luck & good job by some of the posters here (many are way ahead of me, but I try to prep some every day)
i dont like those litle 1$ bull tab things
ive found that most times they just dont fire !
i prefer a claymore! wether it be a practace one or a “live” one
I haven’t seen much discussion about pet supplies. We have two dogs that can contribute to our comfort if/when things get rough. Our German Shorthaired Pointer is a great hunter, and we just got a Bernese Mountain Dog pup which I plan to train for pulling wagons or sleds depending on the time of year. I expect both these dogs will contribute to our existance and earn their “keep”. I have always fed my dogs dog food and a few supplements, but very little to no table scraps….”people food”. Other than storing bags and bags of food (they both eat plenty) does anyone have thoughts on maintaining healthy dogs.
Sorry M.D., if you’ve addressed this issue, I haven’t seen it.
The other concern with dogs is that if they survive and their owners don’t they will pack and they will attack. You will have to be prepared to shoot them just as rural communities today have to deal with the end of summer abandoment of Rex… just as MD has had to deal with other dogs – how is the pup settling in MD?
Pets are always a two edge sword – the cat will keep the mice and rodents out of the stored foods and the dog will provide protection – their care and the complications there related will increase when the SHTF.
Prepping begins at the beginning. When you get up in the morning, what you choose to put in your pockets is generally to deal with what you expect to encounter that day. Most put a little extra there, a spare twenty folded behind your driver’s license, maybe a Swiss Army knife or a Leatherman. There might be a cell phone charger in your car and probably a quart or two of oil, a tool box, a first aid kit, some road flares and a box of kleenex in the trunk or glove box.Maybe there is a spare key to your car stuck to the inside of a fender with a magnet or a key to your house under a fake rock? The clothing that you choose will generally reflect what exposure you anticipate: is it cold outside? Will it rain? Will I have to hide in a ditch from Blue-helmeted troops or sneak up on a squirrel for lunch?
Some of these things have happened to us all and we learned from our mistakes and planned for the “next” time.
Every step is important, no matter how small or insignificant. One extra bag of beans trumps hunger every time.
I was thinking that if we’re talking no chance of resupply at all, it might be a good idea to stock some more medieval weaponery. A gun without bullets or shells is just an awkward club. You might consider buying swords, spears, crossbows, etc. and researching how to make some simple armor for protection from the same.
if your planing for THAT long of a time of wich you would run out of bullets then that would take so long that i would just buy bullets and use them sparingly and acuretly (pardon the spelling)
you know… ive alwase wondered why do we all prep? im mean beond the basic answer “for my family” but like mine i prep to if the SHTF be one of the last marines left and at least try to keep the corps semi-alive
it may sound stupid but…that is why i prep
I don’t want to die and I want to live as near to my current level of comfort as I can manage, regardless of what happens. Not that I live well by the standards of most, farming is hard work even with tractors, but I’d like to minimize the impact of emergencies.
that is a great reasion to prep
life may be hard now but its all worth it in the end, i can remember nouthing more joyous then when i helped my dad with my first harvest
(i grew up on a tomato farm)
That’s some pretty backbreaking work. My family dairy’s, but we grew a pretty extensive market garden when I was younger. Picking bushel after bushel of tomatoes after school and then milking cows makes for some long days
that it dose!
but still some great memorys
First and foremost, you must have a survival “never give up” attitude. With such an attitude comes the obvious preparations. Luck will come somewhat into play too but often times, “lucky” people make there own luck. Willingness to work with trusted people will be a very good attribute as communities will be more likely to survive than the lone wolf. Being charitable but doing it wisely will be beneficial also.
As a lady living with a teenage son (and sometimes a young daughter in her early twenties) I have been giving thought to these matters for some time. I have weaponry (shotgun, two rifles, and pistol) though they aren’t ideal. I have a bow. Firewood, some stockpiled food, some ammunition, source of water, first-aid supplies, short walk to good hunting. However, I find it’s very difficult to stockpile prescription medications without doing some illegal doctor-shopping. And my quarter-acre lot is not going to fully support our need for vegetables–I do need to get out of here, and I fear I have run out of time to find semi-rural property.
We had a little run-through in February, when the big East Coast blizzards trapped us here for five days without power or communications. We did very well. I’m not saying it was delightful, but we were safe and happy. Made me aware that though snow is not common here, snowshoes might sometimes be necessary for winter hunting. I used the whole experience to start plugging holes in my survival/sustainable living plans.
Laurel, it looks like you have a good set-up where you are. A quarter-acre can provide enough food for all your needs for the year. You just need to get rid of all the grass and plant mostly edibles. I have a third-acre in town. Intensive gardening methods will provide more food than the usual methods. The information in the seed packages is meant for usual but you can plant much closer. I grow many different vegetables and fruits. Including nineteen dwarf fruit trees, fifteen fruiting shrubs, more than 50 berry plants, 4 grape vines, hundreds of strawberries-all those in the areas that are not as sunny as where I grow my vegetables and herbs. I can, freeze, dry and sometime have some left over to sell. The lot includes my house and a separate building I call a the cottage. It sounds like a lot but I still have plenty of grass that I need to remove. Start now and you will be surprised with how much you can grow. I’m 63 and moved here 4 years ago. I did it all by myself, this used to be all lawn. Good luck.
Survivalist role model -
http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/04/23/1164899/death-of-caveman-ends-an-era-in.html
Most here seem to think of survival in terms of self, self and significant other or family. That’s fine until a group of predators show up to raid your garden, relieve you of your supplies and help themselves to the females. It is impossible for even a family of 8 (2 parents, 2 able-bodied grandparents and 4 teenagers) to maintain a security watch 24×7 while carrying out the laborious work of maintaining a homestead without electricity and running water and still obtain minimal sleep.
Rugged individualism was great in old westerns but it won’t work WTSHTF. A garrisoned homestead where several families either preposition supplies prior to TSHTF or show up with their preps after would probably work best. Attempting to organize neighbors, even in rural areas, prior to TSHTF will result in either you being labeled a nut case or give some ideas whose home to show up at after TSHTF. You will never get the same level of commitment among your neighbors as with families forming a garrisoned homestead because one cannot choose one’s neighbors!
Sam Adams,
I’m curious, where did you get the idea that the streets will be filled with armed marauders who are going house to house in search of … whatever.
There is absolutely NO evidence, data or reports from any credible sources that supports a theory like that taking place – none. Even the trend researchers like Gerald Celente sees nothing to that degree happening. There is no way on this Earth that the have-nones will ever pose that degree of a threat.
Too much energy is being expended upon the very remote “what if’s” scenarios instead of reality. To extrapolate to this degree is about as valuable as prepping for a physical assault from the Bolivian Navy.
By the way, Bolivia is a landlocked country.
WITWCT writes: “There is absolutely NO evidence, data or reports from any credible sources that supports a theory like that taking place – none.”
Really? Where do these credible sources, even the eminent Gerald Celente get their information? They see nothing to that degree happening, is it? They have crystal balls, do they?
The question was “How long will you survive after SHTF?” I thought it went without saying that nothing like TEOTWAWKI has ever happened in the history of mankind on Earth, including the mini-Ice Age. No one knows what will happen, there is no information to base any statistics upon, which bears repeating; there is no information upon which to base statistics for survival of the human race in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Get it?
Everybody here posting is doing so based upon their sum knowledge, experience, and imagination of what it would be like to have to survive in the age of “nothing!” To ridicule anyone’s thoughts on the subject is the height of arrogance, shouting that “you don’t know what you’re talking about.” Probably true, but then neither do you! We’re all just guessing, and Samuel Adam’s guess posted at 7:15 pm on the 23rd is just as good as yours.
As it happens, there is ample evidence of exactly that, people trying to survive terribly dire circumstances even as recent as the “Great Depression” having to steal food to feed their families. My father admitted as much to me when I was a boy, that he and my uncle, his younger brother stole food stuffs to bring home because his family were so poor they had nothing. Not decent clothing, no home, nothing. He told me this with tears in his eyes, the shame of destitution so great he was forced to steal food so he and his could survive. So, Buster, you think long and hard before you condemn the thoughts of others.
When you have first hand knowledge of the consequences of attempted survival after a cataclysm, or someone else’s first hand knowledge to point to, I’ll listen. Otherwise, your opinion is no better than anyone else’s .
So, what’s your point? You make no relevant sense. You state a case for guesswork as a model for preparation which is really an oxymoron.
If you plan & prepare by guessing be my guess-t.
thank you ahab FINALY some won who dosent just say “thats noncence or thats stupid” ive had as close to tetowaki as any won (I WAS in iraq when sadam was removed from power and we said “your liberated”)
Yo, Samuel Adams,
Already ran into that attitude. I live on a back road in the hills of North Georgia, and my neighbors are few, probably totaling 20 families. I was greeted with skepticism by about 1/4th of them, total disbelief by another fourth, and grudging acquiescence by half of my neighbors. You have a point, indeed, and I’ve taken it under advisement. See? Good minds do think alike!
Yo, yo Buster,
I am not surprised about the backwood attitude you experienced – they probably worked for Green Peace saving whales and saw the name “Ahab” and turned cold.
You gotta love people with discernment!
Sam Adams – I think you are correct in your assessment. That’s why I stressed “family first” when considering survival in a SHTF situation. As I said in a previous comment to this post, some of my family members have listened to my prep preaching and are actually now in a better state of prep than I, since they are now living off the grid. Others in my family roll their eyes whenever I bring up the subject. The ones in my family who laugh now will come around very quickly in a true SHTF situation. I have set aside enough for them.
I have GOT to work harder on a renewable food supply for the family. We have a chinese plum tree and calamanci (Filipino citrus) tree in the back yard, but I have bee TOO LAZY to start a raised bed garden. That is my #1 priority. Planted a tangerine tree that my daughter raised from a seed in the back yard this week – live in Florida, so that means lots of citrus and vitamin C.
Hey WITWCT,
How about an “ancient” history lesson: the LA riots in 1992 & New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina not quite 5 years ago? Or will human nature suddenly and radically improve after a complete societal meltdown?
First off, there has to be a sudden incident to create the point you are trying make. The financial meltdown will most likely happen but it will be spread over several years & contingency plans & large scale distractions will be in place to quell the masses – this I know firsthand.
Secondly, I live thru the Watts riots of ’65 & the Rodney King riots of ’92 and know you facts before you use them as a reason to create your neighborhood fortress. Here’s a hint – those 2 riots, the looters did not go after a single household – it was all large stores and police/National Guard. I stood there and watched portions of it live.
It’s your time, energy and resources & you can spend it how you chose.
Ah, yes, now I understand your holier than thou attitude. You experienced first hand the Watts and Rodney King riots; therefore, you live in the PRC! That’s the People’s Republic of California. Explains a lot about what you think, and how you think. So, before we go any further and turn this lively thread into a pissing contest, I’ll just disregard your input. Don’t talk to me and I won’t talk to you.
PRC, what a cute acronym – seriously, never heard that before.
You know nothing about me you’l make another baseless assumption or guess. I am about as far from liberal as they get.
To generalize all Californians as you do is like people assuming that all southerners play banjo’s, drink sour mash whiskey & have dental issues.
When you make the attempt to repartee, try doing it on the same planet as the opposing point of view.
sorry i thought you commented on MY thing.. sorry:(
ive only herd of 1 californian that ive liked
and he was the outlaw jose whales
Gunny,
What a great movie!
My all time favorite line from it was – “are you gonna pull those pistols or whistle Dixie?” Absolutely classic -
they sure dont make ‘em like they used to!
WITWCT,
Self defense is only one facet of preparation which includes but is not limited to storing food, water, first aid/medical supplies, flashlights, communications equipment, batteries, etc. It is only one of many skill sets such as agriculture, medical training and simple household repairs.
People in residential areas have formed neighborhood watches for decades to become aware of their surroundings and notify law enforcement of criminal activity. Having more than a single family watching for criminal activity just makes common sense. If there is little or no law enforcement, having more than a single family prepared to defend their interests also makes sense whether in residential or rural areas.
May your smugness and sarcasm serve you well during a violent confrontation today or should TSHTF!
Of course it makes sense for people to band together if there is no law enforcement. I was initially curious as to why you think there would be a lack of law enforcement & why start getting a group into a fear & panic mode? Further, why you think there is going to be violence everywhere, sorry but I don’t see any rational evidence of that happening.
Let me know, thanks
WITWCT,
I have to agree and disagree with you.
While I agree that a sudden all out SHTF scenario like EMP, Invasion, Yellowstone Eruption, (Insert catastrophe here) is less likely in comparison to economic collapse, it is still possible.
From a slow economic collapse to an all out nuclear war, our survival/society depends on the ability to connect with neighbors and collectively hit the restart button. While you may not have a choice, this type of arrangement is not something you want to try to execute in the 11th hour. It makes more sense to reach out to neighbors now and work out mutual aid agreements so you can at least get a good idea of where your neighborhood stands morally and logistically. I don’t think that would be putting a group in fear & panic mode, especially if you’re approaching like minded individuals. Most people who are preparedness oriented would not be fearful of such a proposition. If you feel that you’re in a neighborhood that would not be receptive to such a basic form of preparedness, that would be a darn good reason to relocate.
PND,
As usual, you bring rational perspective to a subject.
Like minded individuals is my point. It bothers me to no end when I see & hear suggestions to basically circle the wagons and prepare NOW for an Indian attack. Meanwhile, the Indians have gone south for the winter … and may stay for a while. Those “Like Minded” people are creating undo stress in their lives and have insighted fear by spreading unsubstantiated information.
Go back through a little history with this blog and look at the common threads of posts and what is now becoming a normal trend – it is somewhat alarming.
The Chicken Littles cry that SHTF, TEOTWAWKI appears to be happening a week
from Tuesday, so buy a gun (hell, I even bought a hand gun – but I do like guns (that’s another story)), build an evade & evac kit, boobie trap your property and so on. Yet, nothing has happened and we all forget who is in control – greed driven spin doctors who are much smarter than you and I and will control the outcome, period. We do not matter nor do we have much influence. Prepare? Yes but for different and for more rational reasons.
I speak from hard experience. I developed a matrix (I’ll keep it simple) that saved these banks in trouble hundreds of millions of dollars, changed the overall perception of the default market and more and at near zero cost to the institution(s). I have an unusual education in that I understand & am trained with Human Factoring. Every presentation I had made was extremely well received – evens political figure, but no intrest to implement.
Why? I discovered much later that it could threaten some powerful kingdoms, kingdoms driven by profit regardless of collatreal damage. By the way, in my original PowerPoint from ’06 I had predicted government intervention if nothing was done & I was naive enough to think that could never really happen.. and what did that trillion dollars accomplish? You can guess -
Anyway, back to my point – creating what I consider panic now is dangerous and like Capt. Ahab so aptly demonstrated with the “attitude” he received from the Gerogian hill people, how you can make something from nothing or from
a created reality. Like I said – believing is seeing.
You are obviously level headed & you understand how thoughts and actions can effect an outcome in your profession. Can you imagine what would happen if you widely speculated and constantly gave worse case scenarios? You would lose control which is paramount to succeed.
And that is my point – losing control from a lack of facts or unrelated scenarios by the like minded. It isn’t any wonder that many of the posts have a panic, scared or giving up tone about them.
I apologize for the rant but I just woke up out of a stupor & decided to check the facts instead of listening to the less informed lemmings.
Thanks a lot LakeLili, you got me thinking !!! :-)
PS
My parents still have their year supply of Y2K food. I speak Spanish & made a shirt back then that said “Y Tu Que?” which means “and you what?” the powers were never going to let the computers crash brcause there was no profit in it.
WITWCT,
I see where you are coming from in that it can actually be destructive to dwell on the worst case scenario, I see that first hand in a lot of people I meet. If you allow yourself to focus on whats wrong in your life, you will only attract more of that and will live a pretty miserable existence that can be changed by simply focusing on whats good.
With that being said, when I think of preparedness I usually focus my efforts on preparing for that worst case scenario. My reasoning is simple, by preparing for the worst, I only have one scenario to plan for, everything else is a walk in the park given a few minor changes. It also allows me to expand mentally and logistically.
The Chicken Little mindset that you are referring to is identical to what I do with only one exception: fear. I feel that entertaining the worst case scenario is probably the best approach to preparedness as long as you stay positive and envision yourself surviving comfortably.
If you’re prepping for the worst case scenario and you’re constantly replaying yourself in a struggle/injured/dead in your thoughts, Murphy is going to find you pretty quickly if TSHTF.
The district that I live in is 1,181 sq miles with a population density of 63 people/square mile (abt 75,000 people). There are 37,986 dwellings with 29,500 being full time – the rest are cottages. There are four population centres with an average of 1,200 people and one large urban centre with approx. 19,000 people (and no Walmart!).
There are approximately 40 Ontario Provincial Police officers whose focus is on traffic and drugs.
There is simply no way that the police can be everywhere when the SHTF… they can’t do it now. If violence were to occur, it would be the responsibility of the land owner to resolve the issue… and bury the remains deep.
Ok, now I’m certain we both live in the City of Mistakes
Dash – I’m sure if we actually checked it out, I’d find you on Cty Rd 30 with a barn full of short horned milking cows.
PND,
Suffice it to say we think alike. I too plan for worst case – to a realistic (for me) point because I hate surprises with a passion.
Katrina brought up another good example of why community self policing and self defense is necessary. The people in the stadium, with no place else to go, trashed their temporary lodgings, utterly destroyed the place. The looters were videotaped stealing anything they could carry, and who was right along side the thieves? Why it was vaunted members of the NOPD, in uniform, no less. Many of the those in the vaunted NOPD abandoned their posts stating they had to get home to take care of their own families. Did they simply loot the business areas? No, they stole from every place that had anything to steal, including neighborhoods, and oh, yeah, the Chief of Police had his goons disarm the populace, leaving them defenseless.
The press didn’t venture into whether, or not, the marauders preyed upon helpless citizens; but, witnesses (those stuck in New Orleans) reported this happened over and over again. The breakdown in law enforcement and with safety officers, those sworn to protect the people, was almost total. Nobody was safe, even though the storm had passed. Is that anecdotal? Not a wit. It is recent recorded history. People stole from each other knowing help was on the way, knowing their predicament was going to be short lived, and knowing they could get away with it. After all, who was going to stop them? The cops had taken everyone’s guns, and that act alone should have gotten authorities in New Orleans jailed. The cops themselves committed murder at a bridge in the area. The case has made the headlines. Why did they resort to these unspeakable acts? Because they could!
Rioting blacks looted and trashed businesses by the hundreds during the Rodney King riots, except for one and only one incident. Korean store owners facing the mob came out front of their stores and on the roofs armed, and drove off the looters. Yes, that’s right, three men with shotguns and pistols fended off a mob of hundreds to protect what was theirs.
When, not if, the SHTF there will be a breakdown in law and order, the evidence of that is overwhelming from here in America and in incidents of disaster all over the world. If you can defend yourself during the first few days, you’ll probably survive in the long run. If you can’t, you’re toast. You may not be killed; but, your survival has been completely compromised, and you’ll die of starvation and privation anyway. If you don’t think people trying to survive themselves won’t come for what you have. Think again.
Wow, sounds like you better put it into high gear and prepare, looks like the end of the world is right around the corner.
I wish to comment on the blockade and entitlement issues.
One of the scenario’s is for groups blockading certain roads or geographic areas because they feel they will be entitled to the area and it’s resources. Especially if it’s the only road that leads in and out of hunting and/or fishing areas, or areas where one can gather edible wild foods.
The best scenario is that the blockading group will let you pass as long as you judiciously gather what you only need for the moment. And in return give them a portion of your harvest, like share croppers. The other best scenario is that they will charge toll fees to allow you or your group safe passage in and out of their operational area.
Then there are also the possibility of darker scenarios. One scenario will be confiscation of game, gun and other survival gears in someone’s possession. Others include violence such as assault, rape and others but letting you live. The worst scenario is for the blockading groups to hide and allow others to get in their area of operation where the games are. They will assess their strength compared to yours and formulate an ambush strategy and lay killing zones. They let you or your group hunt and fish undisturbed until it’s time to get out. On the way out hunt, they will spring their ambush so they can kill you, get your game, your guns, your gears and your flesh and view it as “all in a days work”. If you were lulled into thinking the area was safe, you or your group might have thought it was safe to bring your spouses or your children so the y can help out. God forbids watching them being raped and tortured while you are helpless and dying.
The scenarios where other groups kill to increase their inventory of gears have happened in countries where there are insurgencies. The other elements launched what was called “operation grab arms” where they kill unsuspecting military personnel or civilian contractors to get their guns and other resources to increase their movement operational capacity.
By the way, “cottagers” in this part are called “snow birds”. Mostly, elderly with health conditions that are trying to fly away from harsh winters and be relieved of their ailments and discomfort.
I pray that if ever a total collapse happens, there will be survivors who will still be able to maintain their reasons, principles and their humanity. As others in the post have implied that they can be the ones responsible in pushing the “restart” button. God bless us all.
i (me and anout 50 or so guys) during a SHTF event will try to blockade the IMIDATE roads around our litle base (a VERY litle marine base) for our own safty because every bodys guna think “ima gunna go loot the marine base”
I’m curious to know what the others feel would happen if we encountered another Carrington Event (1859) and whether it could be a SHTF situation. I have had some discussions with people studied in related diciplines who gave me a range of possibilities – mostly in terms of the severity of the event. It guess it boils down to the question of probabilities, but we ARE going into a period of increased solar activity and the last cycle knocked out power to 6 million in Quebec in 1989. It might not have the same disrupting effects as an EMP attack, since a solar storm produces slower pulses; but depending on the time of the year, it could bring on the scenario that Rifleman 336 described if it were severe.
The History Channel is running a program tonight (Apr 29, 2010) on the Carrington Event at 9pm est.
As a fifty year, old male living alone in the Midwest, in a suburb, about 40 miles north of a major city, but in the middle of a very large forest preserve I estimate with a little luck I could survive well over a year. Though seemingly surrounded I am well off the beaten path in a good sized, well maitained, & pretty secure house. I feel if I could get by the first few weeks, with every week that passes after that my chances increase.
I have quite a bit of canned goods, freeze dried food, stored water & live near a stream with the means to purify more water. The area is swamped with deer, squirrels, racoons, & a host of other wildlife. I have a pretty good sized garden & hope to enlarge it next year. I have many years experience gardening, hunting & the means to continue doing so in the future.
I have been a combat shooter for along time & practice frequently with shotguns, rifles, & pistols. If I were to run out of ammo, possible but unlikely I have & know how to use a recurve, compound, & crossbow with plenty of arrows & bolts. I also have a few .177 pellet rifles which are extremely accurate & well maintained with an assortment of pellets.
I am in the process of “steering” my neighbors down the road to thinking along the same lines I do. Like me they have installed a generator but are still thinking about their wood burning stove. I have both a wood burning stove & a fire place.
I realize it would be near impossible to survive alone but am hoping to meet a like minded female and/or a group of like minded people to share the upcoming adventure with.
Great job in the overall prep work.
Also, it shouldn’t be hard to find the like minded female ~
Midwesterner – We are out there. Suggest that you start looking at church or the Legion Hall… Best of luck.
There you go Midwesterner, an applicant!
Nice try WIT… won’t get me married off that fast… I’m very happy here north of the border
ah, but think of the possibility! Ha,ha
Canada is lovely ~
I had never heard the term, the “Carrington Event, 1859,” so didn’t understand the reference. Went looking, and found a report issued about the incident that was clearly illustrative of the potential cause for a modern TEOTWAWKI event, i.e., “SEPTEMBER 1859 – CARRINGTON EVENT THE WORLDWIDE CATASTROPHE YOU NEVER HEARD OF, Sunday,” published March 29, 2009. Whew! Good thing it happened in 1859 and not today, or we’d be in a world of hurt. I’m including selected segments of that report here:
“At 11:18 AM on the cloudless morning of Thursday, September 1, 1859, 33-year-old Richard Carrington—widely acknowledged to be one of England’s foremost solar astronomers—was in his well-appointed private observatory. Just as usual on every sunny day, his telescope was projecting an 11-inch-wide image of the sun on a screen, and Carrington skillfully drew the sunspots he saw.”
“On that morning, he was capturing the likeness of an enormous group of sunspots. Suddenly, before his eyes, two brilliant beads of blinding white light appeared over the sunspots, intensified rapidly, and became kidney-shaped. Realizing that he was witnessing something unprecedented and “being somewhat flurried by the surprise,” Carrington later wrote, “I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me. On returning within 60 seconds, I was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled.” He and his witness watched the white spots contract to mere pinpoints and disappear.”
“What he had seen was the most massive solar flare over the last 500 years. Fortunately for the people of 1859 electrical equipment was not common nor as finely engineered & thus subject to electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage as nowadays. Today miles of wires are common & all our machines are much more sensitive.”
“It is clear that a repeat of the Carrington event could produce a catastrophe the likes of which the world has never seen. “It’s just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters,” says John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NAS committee that produced the report. “Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions.”
“According to the NAS report, a severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people (see map). From that moment, the clock is ticking for America.”
“First to go is drinking water.”
“There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or overground.”
“The truly shocking finding is that this whole situation would not improve for months, maybe years: melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced……. Within a month, then, the handful of spare transformers would be used up.”
“Even when some systems are capable of receiving power again, there is no guarantee there will be any to deliver. Almost all natural gas and fuel pipelines require electricity to operate. Coal-fired power stations usually keep reserves to last 30 days, but with no transport systems running to bring more fuel, there will be no electricity in the second month.”
“…With no power for heating, cooling or refrigeration systems, people could begin to die within days. There is immediate danger for those who rely on medication. Lose power to New Jersey, for instance, and you have lost a major centre of production of pharmaceuticals for the entire US. Perishable medications such as insulin will soon be in short supply. “In the US alone there are a million people with diabetes,” Kappenman says. “Shut down production, distribution and storage and you put all those lives at risk in very short order.”
“Help is not coming any time soon, either….”
What’s the likelihood of electricity erasing sunspots, or solar flares, of that severity occurring in our lifetime? Scientific analysis of the event indicated a 500 year span, but that doesn’t mean anything. Could it happen again sooner than 2359? Sure, why not! Does that mean it’s going to happen. No! But, this is an example of what could happen.
With no help on the way soon after an event such as this, we’re on our own. Survival for people with critical medical conditions is problematic, meaning they’d die. Only the fit would be left in short order, and only the prepared will survive long enough for the electrical grid to have been reestablished. People with generators will be able to run pumps for wells and water supply only as long as there is fuel. Without transport, and without electricity there won’t be fuel when the on hand supply runs out. Everything will be like it was in the mid-1800s. You’ll be able to make it if you have the where-withal, and not, if you don’t. Sucks! But that’s the way it is.
Ahab – Thanks for posting these segments. One of the “studied” people I spoke with told me that if we were to get an event that was only half the intensity of the Carrington Event, it COULD cause the kind of devastation these segments describe. Her reasoning was that the extensive power grid we have now would not be able to handle that kind of load.
Something else that doesn’t get much spread. The Cyber Security section at the Pentagon have detected and been countering hack attacks on the electric power grid on the west coast grid. Computer analysts have tracked the hacks to China, where hackers have been putting on a concerted effort to disrupt the computer systems of most of our interconnected cyber infrastructure. The computer section suspects, and reports (with little spread of information by the MSM) findings consistent with other overt threats to American Naval forces and American interests all over the Far East by the Chinese government.
Consider, if in these attempts by the Chinese they are successful in locking up the computer networks that control the power grid, what would happen to large segments of the country. Locked up power grid equals no electricity to consumers, not because of solar flares; but, because the grid’s computer programs were vulnerable and succumbed to attack. The results would be identical to what would happen if massive solar flares fried the grid. Doesn’t matter what caused it, the loss of the grid would be devastating.
Again, same question. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? It’s anybodies guess. For all the calamities that can occur, doesn’t it make sense to prepare, even a little? A lot more would be better, but you go with what you’ve got when the SHTF. Any preparation made is better than none, or little, no matter the origin of the disaster. Scenarios explored on this thread are flights of imagination indeed; but, that doesn’t make them statistically unlikely, or implausible, just something to consider.
People here have invented a lot to consider. Yup, sure have! Some fanciful, some tragic, some too awful to contemplate, and all are possible. A character in the Charleton Heston movie “Earthquake,” a California National Guardsman played by Marjoe Gortner, attempts to rape a pretty young woman, Victoria Principle, and gets shot by a cop, George Kennedy, before he can complete the rape. I thought then, why on earth ruin a good disaster movie by weaving in a thread that illustrated a “bad” along with all the altruism and the “good?” Just saw it again the other night, but this time I didn’t ask that question. The murders on the bridge near New Orleans by cop came immediately to mind. The character in the movie did a bad because in all the turmoil of the disaster, he had the power and he thought he could get away with it. So did the cops in New Orleans.
Good exists in our world, and so does evil. An old English proverb comes to mind: hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. We are remiss if we don’t take that to heart.
Congratulations Ahab, you are starting to get it and you nailed it when you said “People here have invented a lot to consider.” Do you really have to consider some of it?
There was once a discussion on this blog about what shoes are best for after the SHTF – as if there is such a need for specialized SHTF footwear! Some of it is silly exercises in fantasy.
Preparation, yes but must check the motive for such. The best thing to do is to become level headed and consider the odds and prepare accordingly. Live in a cold area, then pack accordingly etc, you get the point.
Finally, computer hacking has been going on for many, many years but I question how serious of a threat is it if MSN got it. Things of that compromising nature never make it to the public – never.
Anyway, stay on track and do your prep and forget trying to gather agreement for what you do because prepping is a wise decision.
Gee, how nice. I have your approval, all is well with the world. What hubris!
Don’t mistake acknowledgement for approval.
lol
If I can get rural I can live a lot longer than if can’t escape this NM urbania… still have tons to learn but have lived on a farm and 70′s co-op; have friends that have homesteaded for decades … Love the outdoors … My biggest concern is defense strategies for an older petite female … I already have the shoot first and ask questions later mentality but need actual workable strategies.
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