Studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million tonnes of black soot into the atmosphere, triggering a reduction of 1.25°C in the average temperature at the earth’s surface for several years. As a result, the annual growing season in the world’s most important grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days.
Large-scale impacts on food supplies from global cooling are credible because they have happened before, Helfand says. The eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 produced the “year without a summer” in 1816, causing one of the worst famines of the 19th century.
The global death toll from a nuclear war in Asia “could exceed one billion from starvation alone”, Helfand concludes. Food shortages could also trigger epidemics of cholera, typhus and other diseases, as well as armed conflicts, which together could kill “hundreds of millions”.
Another study being unveiled at today’s conference suggests that the smoke unleashed by 100, small, 15 kiloton nuclear warheads could destroy 30-40% of the world’s ozone layer. This would kill off some food crops, according to the study’s author, Brian Toon, an atmospheric scientist from the University of Colorado in Boulder, US.
The smoke would warm the stratosphere by up to 50°C, accelerating the natural reactions that attack ozone, he says. “No-one has ever thought about this before,” he adds, “I think there is a potential for mass starvation.”
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