The Risks We Prep For

Today we present another article in our non-fiction writing contest – By Georgia Boy

I see shows, articles and  comments about the risk of one event-“I prep because I am worried about X.” The show Doomsday Preppers does this-“Jim and Joan are worried about the risk of an EMP attack.  Our experts say the chance of that is 1 in 10,000.”

Ignoring for a moment that their experts may be wrong, the real problem with that approach is that it badly misstates the risk, and takes no account of the fact that prepping prepares you for numerous possible events.  Even if (a very big if) the chance of any given event  is low, the chance of ONE of them happening is substantially greater.

The probability of independent events are additive – for example, the odds of rolling a 1 on a  single roll of a die is 1 in 6, the odds of rolling a 2 is 1 in 6, and the odds of rolling a 3 are 1 in 6. The odds of rolling a 1 OR a 2 OR a 3 are 1/6 +1/6 + 1/6 = ½.

So even if I’m willing to admit that the odds of an EMP attack are 1 in 1,000,

  • And the odds of a major solar flare are 1 in 10,000,
  • and the odds of the Yellowstone super volcano blowing in the next 20 years are 1 in 10,000,
  • and the odds of a comet strike in the next 20 years are 1 in 1,000,000,
  • and the odds of a major pandemic are 1 in 500,
  • and the odds of a really major earthquake are 1 in 500,
  • and the odds of runaway inflation are 1 in 500,
  • and the odds of a major systemic collapse with some other trigger are 1 in 1,000,

then   the probability that ONE of them will occur is 82/10,000.  Still not terribly high, right – 8/10 of 1%, BUT (1) I think the true odds of some of those risks are higher, maybe MUCH higher, (2) that isn’t a complete list of threats (dirty bombs, an LNG tanker explosion in a major port…), and (3)  at 8/10 of 1%, it’s still like playing Russian Roulette with a gun with a 122 round cylinder.  I’d pass on that.

The other relevant factor is that if you do prep,  you have some chance of survival following a major catastrophe.  If you don’t prep, you have virtually no chance of survival.  Think of a deep-sea fisherman –the odds of his boat going down are low, but if it does and he has a life vest, he has some chance of surviving and being rescued.  If he has no life vest, he has virtually no chance.   For lesser events, most people may survive even without prepping ,  but prepping will certainly increase your comfort and standard of living.  Compared to the potential benefit, the cost of prepping is low.

So I don’t prep because I fear a specific event, and I would guess that most people here don’t either, I prep  because there are many hazards out there, and none of us knows which might strike.

Focusing on the odds of a specific event might make it easier for a skeptic to make prepping look foolish, but it’s not the accurate way to look at the risk, or the costs and benefits of prepping.

Prizes For This Round (Ends December 21 2015) In Our Non Fiction Writing Contest Include…

  1. First place winner will receive –   A gift certificate for $150 off of  any bulk ammo at Lucky Gunner, three bottles of Fish Cillin – Ampicillin 250mg (100 Count) courtesy of Camping Survival, and a WonderMill Electric Grain Mill courtesy of  Chef Brad Revolution.
  2. Second Place Winner will receive – 30 Day Food Storage All-in-One Pail courtesy of Augason
  3. Third place winner will receive –  A copy of my book “31 Days to Survival” and a copy of “Dirt Cheap Survival Retreat“.

Please read the rules that are listed below BEFORE emailing me your entry… my email address can be found here – please include “writing contest entry” in the subject line.


  1. Diana Smith says:

    This article has a great point. I, too, have seen TV shows on prepping where people prep for one major event. Usually it’s and NBC war, or pandemic or major earthquake, but all have been mentioned. Something about that particular scenario just hits a cord with some people and off they go.
    I’m a country kid. Winters where we were could be hazardous. We always had extra food, heat, etc on hand, even medicine in case something happened. We weren’t anticipating the fall of Western Civilization, just a momentary glitch in everyday life. But we were ready, and because of that, we weren’t rushing into town with the others to pick up last-minute groceries for the duration. Instead, we could settle in, be comfortable, and spent time together as family.
    I still prep the same way. Maybe it’s a blizzard, or a sudden job loss or illness that might be the next reason we have to use some of what we’ve stored, but largely, I’m ready. If it turns into something horrendous and larger than us all, I’m still ready. Life will go on.
    I don’t have to zero in on a single problem and fixate on that. It’s dangerous, because then you can’t see the other stuff coming. And we do have some stuff coming.

    There’s a scripture in Isaiah that I like. “If ye are prepared, ye have no need to fear.”
    This is where my Dad would have said, “Let go, and let God.”

    • “There’s a scripture in Isaiah that I like. “If ye are prepared, ye have no need to fear.””

      Couldn’t find it in Isaiah, but found a close match in D&C 38:30, quoted by Gordon Hinckley:

      “If ye are prepared ye shall not fear” (D&C 38:30).

      I agree – being prepared for most contingencies does alleviate fear.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Thanks, Diana and Bonnie. That’s a great scripture lesson .

    • Right, people tell me we are all just scared, I always tell them why should I be scared, I’m prepared, I think they are just projecting. Good to know there is a Bible verse, I need to go find it.

    • Texas Gunslinger says:

      Yes- – I watched a few of those “Pepper Shows” on TV. Wasn’t impressed as I thought they went to extremes for their reasoning. I thought the shows were simply a way to make some money for someone. The shows mainly showed these folks as being slightly off! (My opinion) I quit watching.

      I was raised by grandparents who always had something put aside for bad times. Root cellars and all that. Then I ended up writing a program for local law enforcement and civil defense in Idaho. Actually, that was a program written locally because civil defense had gone away as another expenditure of the government that the bureaucrats thought wasn’t needed anymore. In other words, I’ve always been involved in some sort of preparedness program where I worked and for “selfish” reasons. Hmmm- – -living in Idaho where winters can be pretty severe, taught me to always be prepared, for whatever mother nature, the government or some other idiot, throws at me. Now that I live in Texas, the same still applies. There are quite a few programs out there that can be used as guide lines, such as FEMA’s “Are you Ready” plan.

      I think being prepared for the most common problems should be just common sense. Of course we now have terrorism to be concerned about. For that, just be aware of your surroundings. Watch your 6! Lock and Load!

  2. Folks who have appeared on these shows have complained that the producers forced them to focus on one scenario. They also felt the producers were biased–preppers were made to look like fringe lunatics.

    • The preppers stayed though. They didn’t mind the money they were paid to look foolish. But, that is reality television.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      I certainly agree that the producers seem to want to make prepppers look foolish or crazy.

    • Diana Smith says:

      Which is probably exactly the way the powers want us to be thought of–nutcases on the fringe to be ignored by everyone else.

  3. I don’t prep for any single event. We live a few hours from the Texas coast, so I focus on food, water, medical, fuel, and outage. I honestly think that most folks aren’t even prepared for an electricity outage. We have lots of candles, oil for lamps, and solar and hand crank lamps. I almost got rid of our kids’ board games, and am glad I didn’t.

  4. pistol pete says:

    sometimes it takes something small to make people think about preparing for larger events. I have always been one with a survival mindset. Luckily, I married a woman the same paid off at the y2k scare. Not being a computer and electronics person, I had no idea what would or could happen.we have always stored extra and canned alot. In 1999 we decided to do a little more than usual.Well 1/1/2000 rolled around and thankfully nothing happened.When March rolled around, I severely injured my back. I was out of work for 4 months. A that time we had 3 boys at home a mortgage and car payments . savings was enough to help a little ,but we had to live off my wifes paycheck. The extra work we put in earlier kept us from going under. I think my wife went to the grocery store maybe 3 times the whole time I was out of work4

  5. I have looked at potential events and basically for us it breaks down this: I can no longer get things from the “normal” supply channels. And economic crash will do it. A major “natural” event. Civil strife/terrorist attacks. EMP.

    I take steps to:

    1. Acquire what I will need for a few years.

    2. Learn to produce what I need after that.

    3. Defend what I have from attackers or “a kind and caring redistribution-oriented government”.

    My purpose is to insulate myself and family from as many potential hazards as possible. I take my needs from immediate/definite thru probable to possible. I’ll be very happy when I have to start choosing what armored high-mobility vehicle(s) I will next be acquiring.

  6. When people ask me what I prep for I tell them that I’m prepping for life. The simple fact is that prepping is a form on self insurance . It doesn’t matter the event . If I have prepped for an ice storm the same preps work for being unable to work be it sickness or loss of job . As our preps build to the one year level then we get to the economic depression and war in our on country level . An so it goes , each step up in preps makes you that much more independent and provides you with more choices .

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Fixit, I agree that it is a form of insurance, with the benefit that, unlike regular insurance, once the premiums are paid, they are gone forever, while food preps can always be eaten, and tools, skills, etc., can and will be used over and over.

    • Diana Smith says:

      I often tell people that since I used to work for Red Cross and cooperatively with the states emergency management, I discovered it is wise to be prepped for a variety of circumstances. Here, we have blizzards, floods, lightening, wildfire, drought and closed roads as a possibility for natural events, plus there are life events that we must be ready for: housefires require a different kind of prep, like having a bit a savings available. Job loss, medical emergencies or deaths in the family can occur separate from any natural or man-made disaster, and this is the spiel I give people for prepping. Sometimes, they even start doing it themselves.

  7. patientmomma says:

    Thought provoking article! I used to prep for natural disasters because I have lived thru a few. But now I prep for just about anything. My thoughts are: if I could not leave my home for 6 to 9 months, what do I need? In addition to food and shelter, this includes security, medical, bartering, etc. I am always adjusting, adding, hiding, building, preserving, etc. Trying to be as self-sustaining as possible, but it is a continual effort.

    • I basically prepare for collapse financual and societal. Now with tdl changing the face of the country that is another thing to worry about. Tdl is bringing them in as fast as he can before he is impeached or the imagration is defunded. Like congress will do that but there is hope.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Thanks, Patientmomma. I know I’m preaching to the choir on this forum, but it’s nice to have a sympathetic and understanding audience!

  8. I agree with everyone who says they prep for life. I have health, life, car and home insurance so why wouldn’t I have Emergency Situation (SHTF) insurance? And aren’t all Boy Scouts taught to Be Prepared?

  9. Never before in history have so many people been so dependent on distribution systems for food and water. Private wells are covered over as land is developed like my grandfather’s well and creek which is now covered over by a shopping center. People in the past, I’m sure, never thought it was acceptable to live with the attitude that the government will keep the food and water supply coming. We have a large lake nearby but it is all fenced off with no trespassing signs because it is a wildlife preserve. Food and water is so controlled by gov now that it is scary. I hope more people wake up but times are hard and people are so overwhelmed trying to survive their day to day that it is hard to get them to consider something that might make extra work for them initially.( Let’s face it, there is an investment of time to learn how to prep.) I know because I used to think that way.

    • Diana Smith says:

      This is something we often forget about. In the past ten years in our state, I have seen the takeover of public lands by federal agencies. They are still “public lands”, but now they can control everywhere you go on them. They developed many of the campgrounds into these nice little communities, and the old logging roads and trails have been developed into trails for four–wheelers and snowmobiles. You aren’t supposed to go off trail unless it’s hunting season.

      I hear so many folks here talk about how if the SHTF, they’ll just pack up whatever they have and go up “into the hills”. So will everybody else, and they’ll probably settle into these nice little camping areas, or somewhere along the trails, and then, when the powers want to come for them, there they’ll be. They don’t consider this, and don’t want to think it’s possible they could be caught this way.

  10. What got me into prepping was an actual weather event. An ice storm hit the county in which I lived and knocked out every pose pole in the county. Got caught with my shorts down to my knees so to speak. Right then and there I decided that it would never happen again. It is virtually impossible to prep for every event that can occur but if one can prep for the neccesities of life. Food water shelter and a way to keep warm in I climate weather one has the basics covered and can fair better than those who don’t have anything ready or expect the government to bail them out

  11. Good article! Eventhough the odds may favor normality, it is no
    excuse not to common-sense prepare for disaster. This is civil defense education on all potential levels. For instance, in the
    mountain Northwest wild fire is a certainty on a yearly basis.
    2015 was a fire monster and thankfully the season is over. Next
    year the continuing problem returns, as does the chance of
    massive property and life loss. hink ahead and be proactive

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Thanks, Jim.
      Wildfires have to be one of the toughest things to prep for, sinc they can be unstoppable and will wipe out most everything if they reach you.

  12. I read Alas, Babylon when I was very young and that got me started… lol. Honestly, I have always had a cupboard full of salt, even if I didn’t have anything else, because that book impressed on me the necessity. Even if you have everything else you need, no salt means you’re dead. It doesn’t hurt that I’m a saltaholic and would probably be the first to go in a saltless world. 🙂
    I’ve always had a garden and my grape vines and blueberry bushes (I take cuttings and runners with me when I move). I made sure I always had plenty of bottled water. Basically I was a casual prepper, until I had two weeks of being stuck in the house with no electricity to make notes about what I wish I had. Then I got serious.
    I don’t prep for any particular thing, but I try to cover most bases. For example, I have hard copies of references that I use frequently or think I might need in an emergency, just in case the emergency is an extended period of no gadgets, but I also have digital copies of all that stuff on my Kindle in case the emergency is to get out of town with as little weight as possible.
    Basically, being prepared is being prepared for anything… and anyone who is single sighted enough to be prepping for a single type of emergency is probably not very prepared at all.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Nonna, I also read that book and it made an impression on me as well.

      • TPSnodgrass says:

        I read it first when I was 13, loved that book! Have my copy of it still. Hope I can get the older grand kids to read it soon.

    • Nonna, I haven’t read that book, but I understand about the salt. Personally, I remember the Big Northeast Blackout in the 1960’s. While my grandfather sat in the rocking chair telling us all that on a clear night like this the Russians could see a rowboat crossing the river, scaring all us kids, my parents kept the fire going and passed out blankets to all the neighbors that came to enjoy our heat. Since that time, I haven’t been able to throw out a blanket, no matter how ratty it looks. 🙂

    • JeffintheWest says:

      That was a great book, Nonna, and I responded much the same way you did. It was a well done, and actually made us (my brother and me) think about what was, until then, “unthinkable.” In fact, back during the Cold War, when my brother was in the Army and I was in the Air Force, we had a similar code system set up. Just in case….

      I will note however, that generally speaking, if you pick the worst-case scenario you can imagine (say, an EMP event that goes on for four or five years) and prep with that in mind, you will be prepared for a whole host of lesser emergencies that might pop up instead. So I wouldn’t go quite as far as you in saying “single issue” preppers are not prepared. 😉

  13. JeffintheWest says:

    There seems to be a great effort on the part of the mass media and our current political leadership to discredit anything to do with “prepping.” They attempt to smear preppers as paranoid lunatics, red-necks with only three teeth, potential domestic terrorists, neo-Nazis and/or KKK-ers, and generally right-wing nut jobs. Why do they do this? Because they don’t want anyone to feel like they can do anything for themselves. We must all be dependent on them for our daily survival; whether we’re on food stamps, or simply require them to make sure food gets to the supermarket every single day, the goal is to ensure that we CANNOT survive without their active intervention. Why? So they can control the people. If I have the power to deny you water, electricity and food, I have the power to control you, regardless of the number of guns you have. I must therefore discredit ANY attempt on the part of any of the people to be self-sufficient. To that end, preppers are framed as crude, crass, paranoid and stupid — in order to marginalize them and convince the majority of the public that they are “better” than “those lunatic prepper freaks.”

    So the next time you are insulted for being a prepper, remember that the mindless drone doing so has already sold their soul to the devil and WHEN (not “if”) a catastrophe strikes, harden your hearts as the mindless drones come begging for handouts. That’s not to say “don’t help;” but rather explain to them that you’ll help them help themselves and they need to get out in the fields and start growing their own food instead of demanding yours. You’ll teach them to fish, but not do the fishing for them. If we can all hold that line, eventually the real men and women among the mindless ones will stand out, and the mindless ones…well, no great loss.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Well said, Jeff. I completely agree with you. self reliance used to be seen and taught as a great virtue. Now it seems to be ignored or actually frowned on by a great many.

    • Nazis are not right wing they were lefties. Socoalist are lefties and that is what they were//are.

      • JeffintheWest says:

        Three points. One, totalitarians are totalitarians, it doesn’t matter which side of the aisle they come from, but my point was about how the media and government seeks to depict us. Two, chopping hairs doesn’t actually change anything about what my main point was. Three reality doesn’t actually impact what stories the media tries to sell the uninformed; if they can equate Nazis or bigots with preppers, so be it — besides, it’s okay for lefties to hate Nazis, as opposed to communists, at least one of which is a Democrat candidate for President of the United States.

  14. I’ve been prepping since before I knew it was prepping. I have always stocked up for the winter. Then I started to stock up for the summer, when I was too busy to go shopping every week. Now, I’m prepping. Not much different, then from now. Except I’m now filling holes in my prepping that did not make much sense to me when I was younger. Things like a full first aid kit, not just bandages and neosporin. Concentrating on medications, extra water, pet food, grain for chickens and ducks, etc. And, really, it doesn’t take any more effort now than it did then. It’s become a habit.

  15. The point of this article seems to be that when one adds up all the small chances of various things happening, there’s a good chance that SOMETHING is going to happen. & that’s true. THe risk of financial & social collapse was the main reason I started prepping 3 yrs ago. But looking back over my adult life, unemployment & financial setbacks were the most common problem. Saving & prepping reduce or insulate one from those. My wife & I turned the corner at about age 40 when we paid off all our debts. Not having to make mthly payments helps free up one’s income for more productive things; it really is a FREEING experience, financially as well as much less stress from money problems. I’m not where I want to be on this journey, but my goal is to make a little progress each week. & this site continues to help me move forward. Happy Thanksgiving & blessings to everyone!

    • Georgia Boy says:

      RedC, that was my point exactly, and you are absolutely right that savings and preps reduce or insulate you from many risks.

  16. I agree with this article. Prepping is just a way of life. The smart way! It’s like wearing a life jacket when going out on a boat or carrying a spare tire on your vehicle in case you have a flat. Everyone preps to one extent or the other and common sense tells you it’s not just for one catastrophic event.

  17. Prepping in no way bad for me,will eat the food,put stored water to use one way or the other/enjoy camping gear and other off grid tools ect.,enjoy hunting/fishing/target shooting/hiking,the list goes on.So,things I use will help out greatly in a bad scenerio(now the funs gone!)but would have/use the stuff anyhow.Learning new skills never a bad thing whether the world as we know it chugs along or not,working on getting my ham technicians license as newest skill learning,will be a fun hobby I hope and may become a valuable skill set to have,win either way.

  18. long ago read this little blurb in the readers’ digest;
    the chances of being eaten by a tiger on main street are one in a million.
    but once is enough.

  19. BlueJeanedLady says:

    What an incredibly thought provoking article. Thank you! It sure got my “Deep Thoughts” a stirrin’. (Remember the much older and much funnier – 70’s & 80’s – “Saturday Night Live TV” episodes with the “Deep Thoughts” skits? Ha, ha!)

    Many of my “Deep Thoughts” are respectfully mirroring several tried, true & honest (as NOT seen on so-called “reality” TV) commenters on this thread as a) I believe I started “prepping”, of sorts, long before I knew what today’s definition of “prepping” was; b) I prep for life (whatever is unexpected should be expected to possibly occur at some point in time), later today, tomorrow, next month, next season, etc., in general; c) I prep for the most obvious natural disasters that could happen in my area (most notably but not limited to, tornadoes, blizzards & ice storms) and; d) I try to prep for optimum self-sufficiency, which is a formidable task & goal, to say the least.

    Oh yeah, in an admittedly less altruistic & more selfish manner, I also prep for personal satisfaction & personal convenience! 🙂 I simply can’t stand running to the store if all I need – until the next planned, regular shopping trip – is some matches, radio batteries or more toilet paper, let alone another loaf of bread or gallon of milk. Yes, I have a ‘master’ wally world shopping list – everything we routinely buy from the superstore(s) and check it twice & check it thrice to add & restock items before every dreaded – and I mean “dreaded” – visit. Saves a lot of gas, a lot of time and works well for me & mine. Did I mention I hate – and I mean “hate” – shopping at the wally world type stores? 🙂

    Even today, as I keep trying to trudge like a trooper but often feel I’m stumbling like a wounded soul on this sometimes completely unfamiliar and sometimes extremely rocky preparedness path ahead, I’ve long known it’s not possible to plan &/or prepare for any &/or every potential catastrophe that could, might, will possibly occur some day.

    Rather than becoming defeated by such notions when all seems so overwhelming, I just try (and of course I have down days – sometimes more than a mere day – like everyone else) to keep striving towards a mixed mash of sentiments I was fortunate to learn early on as a child, and still believe & still try to practice today;

    “Plan for the worst. Pray for the best. Don’t forget to stop and smell the roses along the journey.”

    Carry on Packmates. Carry on and do keep taking care.

    • Love you saying, “Prepare for the worst; pray for the best; don’t forget to stop and smell the roses along the way.” This is really my approach to prepping. I also plan for the most common issues facing my area; yesterday it was 11 hours without power after the leading edge of the storm front knocked down power lines. Power outages are my most common problem. They can be caused by storm fronts, tornados, winter storms, and even road construction. Financial set-backs are also a common problem. 400 coal miners have been laid-off in the last 2 months in my area. This doesn’t affect me directly, but my preps allow me to donate food to help those now facing need. This in turn helpsmy community take care of our own. I appreciate this site for helping me prepare to help myself and others.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      thanks for the kind words about the article. And you don’t sound overwhelmed, you sound very squared away.

  20. Had a large windstorm come through here,We finally got our power back on yesterday evening after a short duration of 27 hours. I-84 (OR)and SR-14(WA), were both closed for hours. That is both sides of the Columbia River E of Portland/Vancouver

    I typically prep for things that will or has befallen us, storms of all seasons, time off due to injury/illness. These thing plus extra will see us better through times of more catastrophe.

    Our latest ”down time” was short however we ran the gen-set, used our camping equipment, had fire in the wood stove, and dipped water from our pump house holding reservoir. I did learn that I should likely have more water stored for instant convenience if nothing else.

    I try to prep for everything I can think of, yes I am light in some areas, but I do have most of the basics covered and can make due with that in most cases. EMP? Cascade Subduction Quake? Winter ice storm? Wind storm? These are the main areas I press on as they would be more local to my location. Either one could/would affect power, transportation, resupply. The basics.

    • I’m north of you, so we got the storm with reduced wind speeds. Still was ready for the power to go out. People don’t seem to realize how dangerous high winds can be – I learned that lesson as a child when we had the Columbus Day storm back in ’62.

      I’ve always like the comment on the “Be Prepared” motto by Robert Baden-Powell, the founder of Boy Scouts. When asked, “Be prepared for what?” he replied, “For any old thing.” 🙂

      • Bonnie:

        I remember that storm. Fortunately with our all electric house we had a fire place and a camping trailer parked at the house (only time I remember us having one since). Cooked in the trailer. I was young, my sister and infant; it was like camping for me.

        • My parents weren’t that far past their no-electricity, no indoor plumbing childhoods, so we were pretty well set. Same with the neighbors – every house had a fireplace or 2. I was young enough I thought the whole experience was an adventure.

          • Bonnie:

            Do you have a younger brother and a younger sister who has passed?

            • Nope. And the system won’t allow a one word reply! 🙂

              • Bonnie:

                Okay, thanks.

                • I still remember the Columbus Day storm of ’62! I was eight when that happened and living in Everett,WA. We made do and I still remember doing homework by kerosene lamp light. We played alot of cards with rummy leading the way LOL!

                  I’m glad the storm was localized for the most part, the PUD crews really put in alot of overtime and we’re thankful for their dedication. I have a few tree’s down, with two of them getting very close to the new goat house. Some of them are alder’s and flagged to be fell this winter. Next years firewood has already started the process!

                  The Columbia River Gorge is an amplifier for winds, it is a norrow stretch that crosses the Cascade Mtn range. Very beutiful area, very diverse terrain from east to west, and very different weather patterns at times.

                  • JeffintheWest says:

                    Ha! Boy does it ever! I remember driving out of the eastern end of the gorge once, and I got hit by a 70 mph cross-wind that darn near blew my little pick-up truck into the river. I got lucky since there wasn’t any other traffic near and managed to avoid wrecking (barely), but I can only imagine what would have happened had I been in a big rig!

                    • A few years back a tractor trailor rig got blown OFF of the Sam Hill Memorial bridge and into the Columbia!

                      Yep, it does get a bit breezy here.Definently has a few wind related motor vehicle accidents every year. That is a bit east of me. I have been following 18 wheelers before and have seen the trailers blown far enough to one side that the drivers side rear trailer wheels were off the ground.

      • mom of three says:

        We are really North of both of you we get those cold Northeastern, winds, rain,it flooded in many area’s. I don’t go out at all even if I need something I’ll live with out it.

  21. Rod Zeigler says:

    Good article. I had never thought of odds of a single event contrasted to odds of all combined events. I prep professionally for EMP/Solar which I consider almost the worst event survivable. I figure anything less will be covered by my preps and anything worse I will give my best shot.

    • Georgia Boy says:

      Thanks, Rod. And I think you’re right – EMP is about as bad as it can get.

      • I agree with that! I’d like to get a couple more crosscut saws in the six foot range. Sure would need alot of firewood if the power were off indeffinently.

        Another reason why I want a boer buck. It would be easier to take care of the meat from a goat as opposed to a 1200 Lb angus. Less cutting ( I do my own game), less salt for curing, smaller smoke house, etc, etc. Chickens are doing well and want to add rabbits next.

        Going to all OP and heirloom seeds for the most part as well. EMP would really beget a return to an agrarian society after the die off.

  22. TPSnodgrass says:

    I grew up hungry as a kid. I cannot in good conscience not be prepared nor not have enough supplies to help the grand kids as well. Anyone can have it happen to them at ANY time. So, we prepare and sleep better for it.

  23. The wife and I started prepping a couple years ago, but waited for me to retire and for us to move out of the lower 48 to start getting really serious about it. About a month and a half ago we had our first big snowfall and it knocked out power for a week. We were nice and warm and had plenty of food and water. It also showed us that we live in a community of like minded people. There was no run on the grocery stores or anything like that. The only complaint I heard was that some a-hole bought up all the generators in the store and was trying to sell them on Crags List for double the price. Luckily we already had ours as did our neighbors.

  24. Mayflower Passenger says:

    The article above was on point in calling attention to the fact that there are a multitude of possible triggers to a serious disaster affecting Life As We Know It. However some significant issues were missed. The first point is in the inherent understating of the probability of each of these possible problems. For example the “statistic” cited about the risk of a Yellowstone eruption is based on a logical flaw. (No matter how many experts perpetuate the same misuse of the concept of probabilities, it is still a mistake.) That is the assumption that if there has been only one major eruption in ~600,000 years, the chances of an eruption are 1/600,000 for an eruption in any one year. The physics of the volcano as well as the established pattern of that same volcano negate that assumption. The facts that this caldera has erupted multiple times, and that those eruptions appear to have a realtively consistent period between eruptions suggest that as we get further into its recurring cyclical period (~600,000 years), the probability of the cyclical event repeating is greatly increased. The information released to the “public” of course would not state that because that might lead to “unnecessary alarm”.

    As for the statistic about an EMP attack, there was a report released as the result of a Congressional Study that was ignored by the press since it was released the same day as the “9-11 Commission Report” was released. This study concluded that an EMP Attack or CME Event were not possibilities; they are a certainty. (That means 100%, not 0.0001% as some experts want you to believe.) As for the so called statistic about a major systemic collapse, someone pulled that one out of La La Land. Also, there was no mention of the statistical probability of a Major War. Finally, these “statistics” do not address an even greater danger, which is the compounded risk of the economies of the world being more inter dependent now than at anytime in history, and there are more major economies “already past bankrupt” than ever before in history.
    Mark Twain once quipped, “There are three kinds of liars in this world. (1) Liars, (2) D**ned Liars, and (3) Statisticians.”

  25. We don’t prep for any one thing. We prep for any thing. Which is really the same as Everything.
    When stationed in the UK back in the 80’s we had a plan in place to evacuate the wife and kids independent of the official US State Department. (You may not know this but the governments official evacuation of citizens was considered an act or war). In case of potential WW3 My plan was to have my family back in the US before the State Department ever said squat.
    Having lived from Kalifornia to Georgia, Texas to Wisconsin, we have found that the same sound preps cover all the possible situations.
    So who’s afraid of zombies?

  26. MD,
    Did anyone read the article in ‘The Lanclet” spelling?, China now have 3 strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. 2 in pigs, one in humans.

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