How Much Time Do We Have Before TSHTF?

This is a question I’m asked at least once a week :

How Long Before The SHTF?

View Results

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Please let us know why you chose your answer in the comments below – thank you…

About M.D. Creekmore

M.D. Creekmore is the owner and editor of He is the author of four prepper related books and is regarded as one of the nations top survival and emergency preparedness experts. Read more about him here.


  1. NO ONE KNOWS, thats why we prep now!

  2. James from Iowa says:

    How about ‘It already has’.

  3. That many votes and no comments? What is up with that?
    I put 1 to 2 years, but there are so many variables that it could happen at any time. We all know we are in a double dip housing depression.
    Violence could break out any time with the public employees . The weather this year is unbelievable.
    Gas and deisel over 4.00 a gal. now in Ca.
    The possibility there could be a disruption in fuel and food deliveries.
    I have never seen anything like what is going on now.
    My neighbors lives are falling apart around me. There won’t be anyone we can count on here on my road.
    When you really slow down to consider everything it has already hit the fan and is hitting it as we speak.
    Luck to everyone. I never know when this well the last time we have the computer.

    • Lousy typist. I meant to say I never know when this will be the last time we have the computer.

      • I live in San Diego & paid $3.42/gal for regular yesterday. Remember, we hit $4/gal about a year ago.

        • Mountain lady says:

          Today, gas is 3.65 here in the foothills.

          • I just now got out and the 76 station was 4.09 for diesel
            and the cash price at another station was 3.95. This is in the high desert.

            • Here in central Ontario today, gas is $1.136 / Litre which I think works out to about $3.40 a gallon. That is up 9 cents a litre in two days!

  4. I can’t remember how I voted, if I did. But was probably wishfully optimistic and voted for the 3 to 5 years. Duh!!!!!
    The only one that I can’t handle is the 6 months or less.
    But who knows?
    I would have voted for the 3 to 5 years to be able to get all that I can possible obtain for survival. It would have been a blessing for me and my family. But I can still pray and have hope.
    Seems though that the world has become more of a mess, and as usual things are out of my hands. So I am going to have to do what I can and do like Scarlett O’Hara and worry about the other stuff later ( I believe she said “tomorrow”). Each day will have to be enough now.

  5. I voted that we go on forever, a nonsensical answer to a nonsensical question. For people in New Zealand or Libya, the “SHTF” already. Somwhere else it will be next week, next month, or next year. The point of preparedness is to be ready regardless of timeframe.

    One thing I’d like to mention, is that a majority of those polled seem to think it’s a year or two or more down the road. I’m betting if you polled those people two years from now, the answer would be the same. We all like to think we have just enough time to prepare, that we’ll be ready before something really bad happens.


    • Trust me, I don’t feel like I have all the time in the world to prep.
      But on the other hand, I have eaten or wore out a lot of preps that had less than a 10 year shelf life. Been doing this a long long time. If anyone cares what I really think? I don’t give a rats a__
      if it collapses or not. I think the Anarchists like Derrick Jensen have the right idea. Bring down the machine!

  6. i want to hear everyone’s reasons! mine – december 2012. simple as that. mayan calendar, pole shift, sun spots, whatever you want to call it.

  7. templar knight says:

    We are already starting to feel the effects of TSHTF. CNBC is reporting $4 a gal. gasoline in California this morning, oil prices are out of control, commodity and precious metals prices are way up, food inflation is taking a toll, budget deficits are getting worse, real estate is in a free fall, and unemployment keeps increasing. The US Government continues to print money and buy debt under its Quantitative Easing Program, which is nothing more than just printing fake money. Add to all this revolutions, unrest, and violence in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Jordan, Lebanon and throughout the ME and you have a recipe for disaster. Japan’s soverneign debt has been downgraded again, Greece is seeing riots today, and debt problems in a large area of southern Europe are worsening.

    Labor unrest has come to the US, with politicians fleeing Wisconsin and Indiana to keep from voting on labor reform and budget deficits. Union leaders and politicians in Massachusettes yesterday called for “blood in the streets”.

    I think we are in grave danger, and that we will be extremely lucky to avoid a collapse. Truly, it’s time for prayer and preparation.

    • Rhonda Sue says:

      Well said,templar knight! I agree!We have already started down the slide and the playground bully is waiting at the bottom with a sneer on his face.Prep people!

  8. I think I chose that answer out of fear – fear that I won’t be ready! We need to find a buyer for this city house so we can move ourselves to the country where we can become more self-sufficient. We’re doing all we can to make ready here but cannot become independent if we don’t get into the country. There is a collapse afoot and it is definitely coming. I am in hopes they will be able to stave it off for at least a year.

  9. blindshooter says:

    I went with one to two years, but less than one would not surprise me at all. The news is very disturbing and the food/fuel inflation on top of that may bring on the nastiness faster than I thought possible.
    If the hard core islamist types control enough of the middle east I believe world war will follow.
    I read that there is another round of mortgage interest resets coming soon, this time will include a lot of commercial loans as well. That is what killed me, a startup business that failed. We even planned for a short recession in the start up costs, but failed to foresee just how long it was to go on. I don’t think we were alone in that failure to forecast the length of the down turn.
    I see even long established businesses failing in my area, the only places I see busy are the dollar stores and discount grocery chains. Yet they are saying the recession is over? I don’t think so, only the massive injection of printed money gave us a short reprieve and that will likely get us in the long run.
    Maybe I should have voted for less than a year….

  10. SoDak Prepper says:

    All you have to do is turn on the news to see the world is going to hell in a hand basket

  11. It is difficult to assess the occassion on an TEOTWAWKI event due to the chaos theory type events, e.g. the burning of the Tunisian man, precipitating the historic events we see in the Middle East.
    However, the Monetary system is very fragile and an oil crisis is looming, Iran is close to nuclear weapon production and the United States is wobbling.
    As a survival blog follower certainly all these signs are not good.
    Another unforseen event may push us over.

    • I completely agree with you. It is always the Black Swan Event that brings everything down.

      • That Tunisian fruit vendor was the Black Swan. Look at what’s happened since the poor guy set himself on fire a mere few weeks ago.

  12. I think that if we manage to squeak by until the 2012 election, AND libertarians and/or conservatives take much stronger positions in both the house and senate, but we either keep Obama OR elect a serious fiscal conservative then we MIGHT make it as much as 10 years. Maybe. The problem is that it is so unsteady no that it COULD kick off at any time, it just requires the proper push.

    Of course you always have the possibility of natural or man made distasters

  13. I picked two to three years because I think the government can continue to stall about that long and I think our enemies need that long to protect themselves from the dollars collapse. A support here, some controls there etc.. noting ‘real’ happens between now and the elections. Both parties think that cutting 60 billion (less that .5% of the deficit!) is actually significant. Forget about cutting debt.. Oddly the tea party folks might delay the TSHTF because as they put more and more people in that actually want to fix the problem, it will give other countries some hope that we will do something so they will keep buying our debt.

    OTOH a significant stoppage of oil and a perception of weakness could cause a rogue event or another successful 9/11 style attack and then all bets are off.

    • Lint Picker (Northern California) says:

      I agree with you. I also picked 2 – 3 years largely based on political reasons. The politicians don’t care if this country burns down around their ears – they are only interested in themselves, with few exceptions.

      They will lie, cheat, steal, and the mainstream media will asist them in the Grand Deceival for another couple of years – then it all crashes in on us and our collapse will make Rome’s look like a cake walk.

      I hate to be a cynic about everything all the time, but I don’t see any solution now. We’ve gone past the tipping point – it’s only a matter of time now and that time is drawing close. Believe me, 2-3 years may seem like a relatively long time, but it will be here before we know it.

      Pray, love your family, and prep. Short of a full-fledged rebellion by the taxpayers, this country is sunk.

  14. It depends on what you consider SHTF. The world is going to look very different a year from now. I don’t think that it will be a peaceful transition.

  15. Mechanic in Illinois says:

    I think it will take about 1-2 years for food prices to rise out of control. At that point things will start to happen.

    • FYI, Food price is based on two things, gas price and yearly yield. The crops are not so good this year and gas is on the rise. The latter, is probly not gona stop anytime soon. Oil trading rt now at over $100 a barrel and stands to go as high as $150 within the next couple of weeks. That puts the gas price at around $4 a gallon. IF it keeps going higher(it probly will due to the unreat in the Mid East) then we could see that $5 or even $6 a gallon mark, Between the cost of living at that rate and the adjustment to food prices because of it, will send the public at large over the edge.

      • I believe I voted 1 yr or less….long day. I debated between that and 1-2 yrs.
        As for sending the public over the edge, they are already there. At least those affected by unemployment and no hope in finding a job. Add that to the low income working families who’ve been struggling since the beginning of time and add those who have had a pay cut or some other negative event. Many have a job and still can’t afford to live. They just don’t get counted as being unemployed. Add fuel and food price increases. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet! I pray all the time for these folks. I’ve been there and it is SCARY!
        Most think things will be “Ok” because we are being told just enough to keep everyone “calm”. I’m terrified to imagine what is going on that we the citizens of this country aren’t being told. Something is close…. We keep forgetting that these ME countries are the foundation for those who want to wipe us and Israel off the map. They can’t be bribed or bought or convinced things will be better if they just go home. I see the US leaders doing NOTHING but making it worse and I see WWIII on the horizon. I wake up every morning now to an unfamiliar world and it’s not going to get better any time soon. Blessings to all.

  16. I don’t know if I have an explanation. (I voted 1 or 2 years)
    More of a hunch, backed by several key dates that I’m keeping an eye on.

    Key dates like the election cycle of 2012. Lot’s of sharp divides happening right now. Unions, Tea Party, Ron Paul fans, even echos from the demonstrations in Middle East; I think election cycles are just going to get more and more polarized and demonstrations/pickets/whatever could become more common and lead to civil unrest.

    Conservative estimates for peak oil will hit over the next few years. (For those who don’t believe we’ve already past it.) As it becomes harder to ignore I think more and more people will get worried, or angry over fuel prices. Again, civil unrest likely.

    High activity for the sun for the next few years. Chances for damage to the electronic infrastructure are higher.

    So, my vote was due to the fact that I think chances are elevated for the next couple of years. Not that I think we’re guaranteed to collapse, but that probabilities are stacking in favor of it.

  17. You ran this poll a time or two before & am curious – when did you do this before and what were those results? Might be interesting to include those numbers below this new poll.

    Thank you & when is your book due out for public viewing???

  18. Mother Earth says:

    I said one to two…although I think it is already happening all around us. My guess is our government will struggle to keep us going for as long as possible. It’s getting really scary…wondering now if I should consider heading for the hills sooner, where we have a couple hundred acres. We have a few acres in the country now with a garden and orchard, but it is probably going to be too close to civilization. Unfortunately our work is here…anybody else facing this dilema?

  19. To some degree I think TS is HTF now.

    After about 10 seconds of reflection, I picked three to five years. That is twice what my logic tells me is a likely scenerio with current Middle East implossion. Past events (like housing bubbles) have taught me that the train goes on longer than you think before it comes off its tracks.

    But really, I don’t know.

  20. Okielawman28 says:

    Well I did not cast a vote due to the many what if factors involved in the question.

    I honestly think that a little shove in the right direction and we could bust loose at any time all over the world. I say buy as many beans, bullets and bandaids that a person can get thier hands on and hunker down for an interesting 2011.

  21. Although I voted for the 2-3 year timeframe, I think there are way too many variables to make an accurate forecast.

    Things could crash and burn, sure, but a long and drawn out slow decline is more likely. It also depends on your threshold definition for SHTF. Some definitions put us over the line already and others require truly awful conditions. As I see it, things are worse now than they’ve been.

    Either way, I’m prepping: going to the range on Sunday, planting a bigger garden after the last freeze, and buying a big load of food.

  22. I picked one to two years but I think that may have just been my wishful thinking. I believe we are already on the road to serious collapse with no turning back. I find it interesting that most Americans think it’s all about American politics, American access to oil, American blah blah blah. The collapse will be global. Certainly American decisions have played a major part in the coming doom, but they are only one of the players in a global fraud and ponzi scheme. Now China and Russia are doing trade in their own currencies. Soon oil and all commodities will be traded without using the American dollar as payment. It does not matter who you elect next, the rest of the world is already frantically spiralling out of control. Out of American control. That in itself may make America’s collapse that much worse than many others.

    I am encouraged by the fact that so many people read M.D. Creekmore. I only hope they are all serious about prepping.

    • Lorenzo Poe says:

      Putin just announced that he and Medvedev will pick the next president of Russia. Instability in government succession is why all currencies aside from the $ fail. The Euro may have 12 months before the Germanys pull out. Italy will probably start to warm up the printers this summer.

  23. I do not recall how I voted or when in your previous poll on this…. I give it a year or less. Aside from the obvious reasons others have mentioned, one of the things that bother me the most is the mind set of those that are either the proverbial ostrich or the eternal optomist. Those people are going to be our greatest threat/problem. As far as the government goes…..depends….do I trust it? Not on your life! Law enforcement? Again, depends. I have known some great LEO’s but most are total control freaks with a jackass mentality.

  24. Mountain lady says:

    I think we have already passed the tipping point, but then again, I am one of those who have worn out a few tinfoil hats. Look at oil this morning, up to $100/bl. FEMA buying a billion dollars worth of dehydrated meals (probably for the govt. bunkers). I don’t know, but I think it is very close. It could all come crashing down tomorrow, and then again, maybe the govt. can kick the can down the road for a while longer. I have been spending every last cent I can on preps but depending what happens, well, no body knows!

  25. When depends on what your threshold of IT is. Did IT happen when the schools started handing out condoms to sixth graders or is it not going to happen until foreign armies take over our country like what happened during WWII in Europe?

  26. This is the most difficult thing to pin down because it is reactionary based on what unfolds. That will be based on two things, the economy and Govt crackdowns on regular people. At this point in time, I see both occurring sporaticly throughout the country. we have had govt crackdowns against the people for a while now with increasing intensity. Now, the state level enonomies are strating to crumble under the weight of dept and handouts. WI is just the first of many. This situation is going to expand and spread and the overall situation is going to degrade rapidly. I dont think it will take more than a couple of months. Gas is already rising here and is going to continue to rise. Ive been waiting for months for someone to say it, and yesterday The guests on the Glenn Beck program said it. when the gas gets to about $5 a gallon and people cant pay the bills and eat something has to give. Crime is gona shoot up HIGH FAST and as the situation degrades further, people are gonna do what people do when they loose it. Its like Gerald Celente says, when people have nothing left to loose they loose it!! Well, people are starting to loose it. When it grows, govt supression is going to give way from civil strife to civil war and its gonna be UGLY.

  27. TSHTF is everyday for someone – somewhere. Just depends upon who you are.
    And TEOTWAWK will happen to everyone
    It’s called life & death.

  28. I went 2-3 years but I think much closer to the 2 year mark. The later the better for me as I have just started prepping and pray to God that I have that kind of time. I wish I had started earlier but….now isbetter than never. I feelI have so much to learn. I do thank God that I have had this and other websites that I read religiously. There are many different views and opinions some of which I agree with some I don’t but bless everyone for sharing their knowledge. I have learned much but have so far to go so much to learn. Thank you all for your help!

  29. I voted for “less than a year” for critical events to happen. I know that Dec. 2012 is nuke time but, the events leading to the population mitigation is what will hit about a year earlier. I also think, because of peak oil, that more people are “have nots”. So, the SHTF has started already.

    One, or two things can happen that will make for TOTAL SHTF. One – food supplies come out short, really short. Enough bad weather – all over the world – and we come up short, all over the world.

    Two, an EMP strike could make food much harder to get, a “double edged razor blade”. Our sun is now middle aged – with all the “middle age” problems. How to tell, the last “spotless” period lasted longer then others before it. Experts have said that the sun is about 5 billion years old – and has another 5 billion to go. This means that the sun has “peaked” and is on it’s way down. Expect some really nice flare ups in the next year.

  30. michaelangelo says:

    I picked 2 to 3 years. The present leadership has weakened this country and they are not finished. The beginning of SHTF has started. We have Iran and the rest of the middle east on our east coast. We have Chavez to our south. We have China and North Korea on our west coast. All of them are getting bold because they think we are weak. Who cares about gas prices at this point. I’m concerned about some nut case attacking this country and americans start loosing there lives. We have a chance to change the direction we are going if we elect a leader who has a brass pair in 2012, but that may be to late.

    • templar knight says:

      The present “leadership” are showing themselves to be so weak that even Somali pirates are kicking our asses out in the Gulf of Oman. What is the point of having a Navy if we are scared to use it? What is the point of having seaman if they are scared of being sued for doing their job? Sued right here in the US by US lawyers trying to destroy this country. Why is this crap allowed? The Congresscritters have the ablility to legislate protections for our servicemen and stop all these lawsuits.

      Yet they prefer to support an international community that is worthless. Iran and No. Korea on the Human Rights Committee, Europe being taken over by radical Muslims, and on and on, all for the sake of this multicultural crap, which is really just the destruction of the West. And most of the damage done by a fifth column of Westerners who hate themselves.

  31. actually the collapse happened in 2008. It has been 3 years of gimicks to keep the public blind. In 1-2 years it will be obvious to the average joe when food riots start to pop up in the USA. AS far as SHTF…it already happened.

  32. I picked 2-3 years, but the truth is that the answer is, “it depends.”

    It depends on a number of factors – most important of which is how you define “TSHTF.” Second, that depends on where you are at the time. If you’re in the middle of a revolution, combat zone, big earthquake, etc., then TSHTF is RFN. If you’re sitting in front of a computer somewhere in the US of A, eating too much junk food and not doing much of anything productive at the moment (me, right now), then the time is somewhere down the pike.

    I think that there’s a possibility of a real TSHTF situation happening before year’s end – and I define that as many civil wars and wars across the globe, real unemployment (not the fake and highly manipulated government statistics) wherever you are at >25%, and significant trouble either getting or affording food and fuel (including reliable electricity) for >50% of the population wherever you are. With all of the trouble in the Mideast, oil is fast headed to all-time highs. Given that $4 gas was the straw that broke the camel’s back in ’08, if we visit that range again all over the country (it just pierced $3 here in southern Texas in the last couple of days for regular unleaded) for more than a couple of weeks then the economy will roll over into a full-blown depression, as we are FAR more loaded with debt than 2 1/2 years ago. Let there be a halt to all Libyan oil exports (1/2 are already cut off) for more than a week or so, and we’ll be into the $130s, and if another country starts to have significant troubles then we’ll be over $150 in a flash. Food will become too expensive to make in vast quantities, and people will really have to struggle to pay for the gas to get to work (if they actually have a job, that is). Defaults on home and commercial real estate loans are already high, but they’ll skyrocket if (or, more likely, WHEN) fuel prices go much higher and stay there.

    Oh, and if the Saudis get the Egyptian/Tunisian “disease” then all bets are off. Gas will be $5 in a week or 2, and it will commence a downward spiral in the economy – and who knows where the bottom will be on that.

    So, could be this year, or we could stick it out for another 2 or 3. Heck, we could last 5 or 10, but I don’t see how with the debt we (and the rest of the world) have. That’s without an EMP, asteroid strike, solar flare, WW3 or 9.0 Richter Scale earthquakes all over the place, let alone the Mayan factor or aliens landing.

  33. 1-2 years. I hope! People are starting to get it, which may mean more
    people prepared… Or just more knowledgeable about how to
    aquire what they will need. Hope It doesn’t all kickoff before I get
    home from Afghan next year 🙂

  34. Lint Picker (Northern California) says:

    Unleaded Gasoline (87 octane) at $3.50/gallon this morning, here. That’s up 4 cents since last Friday. Oh, and that’s the cash price – if you charge it, the price is $3.56.

    • Lint I just got out today and diesel was 4.09 at the 76 station and 3.95 at the cash price at another station. High Desert.

  35. Matt in Oklahoma says:

    Dunno, my lifestyle aint gonna change unless i kick it up a notch though

  36. I believe that in the wealthier first world countries we will continue with the current economic crumble, in bits and chunks. Smaller, less self sufficient countries will see big collapses.

    All depends on natural disasters. Every one will make recovery harder, or less likely. The severity of each will increase this.
    Every bandaid and prop holding up the US economy is going to start slipping, but mostly slowly. Another Katrina-type crisis will kick another prop out. Another large crop failure will pull off another bandaid.

    I think most people not directly hit by a disaster will not realize we’ve hit rock bottom until they’re actually standing on nothing but rock. I’m giving it 5 to 10 years in the majority of America. Of course in places like Haiti, they hit bottom and started chiseling deeper a long time ago.

  37. The USA has the largest economy in the world and everything is based on the dollar.Don’t worry be happy.

  38. I chose 2-3 years. The politicians, media and a population that is NOT prepared will hold off taking to the streets for as long as possible. I think it’s called denial. But there will be a tipping point. It could be something as simple as a Social Security check that bounces (remember California tax refund checks that were no good?). At this rate, I think we have a couple years. After that? I really don’t want to even guess.

  39. Deciding which time frame to select was kind of difficult because it depends on where you live. I think for my area (Vancouver Island), a year or less might be a good guess, but a guess only. There are still lots of farms around, and many of the grocery stores buy local because importing stuff from the mainland is pretty expensive what with fuel prices. Which doesn’t mean I’m going to slack on preparations because locally grown foods are not going to be enough when it all breaks down.

  40. check out this vid. when i did this,fuel was 3.18 a gallon. i put that much fuel in about every 30 hours. i have absobed all the fule increase that i can. after 20 years in business for my self ,im just about ready to hang it up. im one mechanical failur from parking my truck,if fuel goes up i cant pass any more increase onto my customers,they cant absob it either. all is not lost for me though. im fortunate to live on top of the biggest gas find in our country and 3rd in the world and truckers artound here who qualify to haul hazmat (i do) can start at $70,000 a year and be home every night. when the lord closes a door he opens a window. ill now in a few weeks what my future holds. best of luck to all. it might get ugly. heres the vid.

    • man! why dont i proof read! please excuse all the bad spelling and typos. ill try and do better. in my defense,,,,i cant find my walmart cheapo glasses and im wearing an old pair of my wifes. im just guessing at the proximity of the letters on this keyboard.

      • Cats eye rims with rhinestones in those glasses? I’ll just bet you’re so cute. : ) I have spell check on or my posts would look like yours. Best luck with that possible career change. $70k doesn’t sound like something to pout over.

    • Rhonda Sue says:

      Good Luck,bctruck!

  41. I voted for 1-2 years, and I based that on the current instabilities in the world with politics, wars, food and the economy. I think any black swan event could tip everything into big time SHTF. What will that trigger event be? I don’t know, but the dollar going into hyper-inflation, a massive terrorist strike, presidential assassination, meteor strike, volcanic winter, mega-earthquake, Carrington Event type EMP, nuclear war, etc. would probably do it. And before you say these won’t happen, they have ALL happened in the past 200 years.

  42. gary in bama says:

    i voted 1 to 2 years .the ptb arent fixing things their postponing disasters like something is coming and they just have to keep it together a short time.almost like they know something big is coming that makes anything long term a waste of not a conspirsy therory nut but i feel like a mushroom .What ever is on the way seems to make the world leaders ignore the present as unimportant to the future. any others here feel the same?

    • Mountain lady says:

      Well, you could be right. As I listen to Coast to Coast almost every night, I have heard all the theories. Witness reports say the govt. has been building underground facilities for years, but why. There are many possibilities, and your thoughts are as valid as any others.

    • Absolutely! You put into words what my gut instinct has been trying to tell me!! But in addition to kind of ignoring the short-term problems, I almost feel like some of the leadership is nitpicking at some of the problems just to see what kind of trouble they can cause. I can almost see them sitting back and “tee hee’ing” behind closed doors! All the while, they are preparing and waiting for the “big thing” to happen!

  43. Nightshift says:

    Yes, the collapse has started. I know my pay has dropped in the past 4 years…not counting inflation. My bills are growing for energy, taxes, insurance, food. None of that counts towards inflation but we know it must be 10% for the last couple years.
    When will the natives start to riot in the streets? Look at Wisconsin …it is starting. Giving uncle sugar a reason for martial law.

    Reccession….depression…whatever you call it, everything is going down hill. I’m on some land now and am shooting for chickens before summer and fruits and vegetables. Got about 6 months food.

    Hold on folks the ride is going to be rough.

  44. I think of prepping the same as wearing a seat belt. You never know when someone/something is going to cause an accident. At a different site, the author said when you go to store, think of it as the last time you might be there – did you get everything you need? That changed my way of thinking about prepping. I hope TSNHTF (The S*** Never Hits The Fan), but I definately have my seat belt on.
    Here’s the other thing I noticed – I spend less on groceries since I started prepping. We are eating healthier, dehydrating leftovers, canning meat, etc. And when a storm is predicted, I never have to go to the store.

  45. AZ rookie prepper says:

    I dont remember what I voted on last time, but I would say here in the US that we are on an extreme spiral downwards right now. Can we pull out of it? Probably not. Here’s the way I see it: severe drought and fires in Russian wheat growing areas last year, probably again this year. Severe drought in China’s wheat growing area this year. Severe snow and rain issues with North American wheat growing ares this winter. NW US wheat growing area hit with disease issues. Brazil has a severe drought in its wheat growing areas. Australia has severe floods in its wheat growing area, along with cotton problems there and elsewhere. Wool too. Petroleum areas all in trouble currently (Mideast, US, Russia, South America). US govt printing money like crazy with no regard for inflationary results. Entitlement mentality causing people to feel they are “owed” an extravagent living, courtesy of the taxpayers. Little to no respect given to the US currently by worlds bad guys. All its gonna take is one or two more (at the time) seemingly minor events….and it could push the whole world off the edge. Get your 4 “G’s” in order, Gold/Groceries/Guns/God. You’re gonna need them.

  46. Under the radar in ND says:

    I did 3 to 5 only because I’m old enough to have lived thru Jimmy Carter (confession – I voted for the sob). Things looked like hell then – twice as bad as now – but Americans are VERY resilient. It will get worse but eventually we get our act together and make things work. Jimmy begat Ronald Reagan – thank God. Obama will give us ????. This too will pass BUT we will be a different society post Obama. I just hope it is for the better.

  47. Tomthetinker says:

    MD… bad boy! ya got all of us in the kennel barkin. No biscuit for you Bad dogge!

    I can’t say I know of a question that sets off so many of us, other than the reasons.. each.. of us prep in the first place.

    Lets see… ECONOMY…. three options there… #1 actual budget cuts, #2 default, #3 print our way out. Oops skip # 3, it’s not working. Congress has forgotten where it’s spine is, so…. # 1 has been dropped from the list. Whats left over… ah yeah.. that.. Door #3. There is a huge amount of cash out here with ‘us’. It’ll take awhile for Uncle Sugar to find it all, unless ‘they’ decide to devalue it all and reprint it. Hard assets…. hummm. There are executive orders regarding that sort of.. ‘money’. Lordy MD….. the possibilities… are lined up like a whole box of strike anywhere matchs around a fire pit. the first one that goes critical mass sets em off in both directions. More than one of em goes off and stuff starts burnin in everydamm direction.

    As to what this citizen sees after they all burn out…. History show us all that there has alway been something to build on. Each time we humans have F – – – – d everything up to one degree or another, it has taken us a shorter and shorter amount of time to exceed our past level of tech. and life style. Damm, History is such a shadow isn’t it. Where ever you go there it is … and if your looking in the right direction….. there it is looking right back at ya.

    History also shows us that the time cycle between one F.Up and the next.. shortens up as well. Tom the Tinker is just going to do what a prudent soul should. Prep until the current logistical chain is out of stock…. then improvise, adapt and hope to live long enough to overcome and restock.

    And so ends the Tinker’s Homily on TSHingTF.

    Now if I could find a nice simple CB set, before somebody lights a damm match, I would be so happy …. this week.

    • OhioPrepper says:

      Keep in mind that Citizens Band radios are a not amateur radio, which is to say that most of the brand names are adequate, but none of them have the wiz bang features available on amateur rigs. Brands like Uniden, Cobra, and Midland to name a few will get the job done. I even have a cheap Kraco brand that I paid less than $20 new which works fine. Your best bet in my opinion is to check someplace like eBay, where I’m seeing rigs from $12 to about $35. At these prices you can buy a few of them, and stash the extras.
      As for what to look for it’s pretty simple. On/Off/ Volume, and Squelch, with 40 channels with Sideband (i.e., LSB, USB) if the feature doesn’t cost extra running on 12 volts. This will work in your vehicle or as a base station with a 12 volt power supply. You may see additional “features” like Mic Gain, RF Gain, RF Power, or the Clarifier. These are wiz bang features that are not all that important and since modern rigs are crystal controlled and synthesized, the frequencies of the channels are exact and stable. You’ll probably want to also pick up an SWR meter, to make sure your antenna, transmission line, and radio are all functioning optimally.
      Most amateur HF rigs can receive and with a minor modification transmit on the CB frequencies. Transmitting is currently prohibited for several reasons, but in a post SHF situation, you can do what’s required and ask for forgiveness later.
      In short, most of these radios use synthesized modern designs, and all work well for the CB service in which tie are intended to operate.

  48. Things go haywire or don’t work out as expected resulting in Shtuff going flying which then meets The Fan which redirects the effects in a haphazard way affecting only a few people while others duck and/or luck out.

    Rinse, repeat.

    The Shtuff has been Hitting The Fan for a long time (since the beginning?) which particular Shtuff is flying, and where it gets redirected to, how many and who it affects is the question.
    Four! some People, SHTF yesterday, for others, it’s about to hit and they don’t even realize it’s coming their way, while others see it coming and are trying as best they can to be prepared to withstand the impact and the after effects as well as be capable of a cleanup allowing for a return to what they think of as normal as quickly as they can – if they can – or be able to maintain life and dignity until such time as life can resume some sense of civility, if ever.

    I voted six months or less because it’s already happening, if it hasn’t affected you yet, you’re lucky. I think maybe the Splatters headed towards The Fan are getting bigger and bigger as time goes by, affecting more and more people as a result.

    Plus, from reading The Daily Bell, it seems the Power Elite who think they control everything have lost control, for them, S is HTF too.

  49. This is a hard one.

    In most scenarios that we consider (outside of Acts of God, such as massive solar flare, asteroid strike, etc.) the great unknown variable is human interference. That variable can either speed up or slow down any catastrophe.

    A good example is the banking failure in Sept ’08. Had that failure been allowed to progress to its natural end, it would have wiped out the entire financial sector, including Wall Street, the international banking system, and most probably all your regional and local banks as well due to the interconnectedness of the system.

    However, human intervention at least delayed it (whether or not it was prevented is yet to be seen).

    So, as we talk about what the next failure may be in the upcoming months or years, what we can’t know is who will be in charge when those system(s) collapse, and what actions or inactions they will take.

    That’s whats going to make any predictions almost worthless. Including mine.

    But FWIW, I think it will be 2-3 years.

    • There are many People who say that if the banking failure in Sept ’08. Had been allowed to progress to its natural end, it would Not have wiped out the entire financial sector, including Wall Street, the international banking system, and most probably all your regional and local banks as well.
      If the crash would have been allowed to wipe out the mal-investments and the bad banks we would be well on our way to recovery today much like Iceland.
      The threat of financial Armageddon was a scam and blackmail.

      • Everything I have read indicates otherwise.

        The issue wasn’t the mal-investments, the issue was the sudden evaporation of trillions upon trillions of dollars of assets, as well as the interconnecting factors of each financial institution to the other, and the need for each financial institution to reduce its risk as fast as possible during a wide spread collapse.

        For example – do you know what pushed Lehman over the edge? A margin call from another bank demanding repayment of a 1 billion dollar loan. This led Lehman to become insolvent.

        Imagine this situation writ large across all the financial institutions. In addition, many smaller financial institutions on the state and local level were making investments in these categories.

        Such a collapse would have wiped out the majority of the financial institutions. Those that remained would have quickly succumbed to the panic withdrawals and massive defaults on their good loans – defaults caused by the massive crash of the financial system as a whole.

        Unfortunately, the underlying problems have not been corrected, even with the farcical “Financial Reform Bill” *snort*. If something is going to take us out in the next 2-3 years, I’d still put all my money on massive financial collapse.

  50. OhioPrepper says:

    I selected 2 to 3 years, but there are variables that could shorten or extend this timeframe. I have some hope for the new members of congress on the conservative & libertarian side of the aisle. With established members of congress like Ron Paul, and new ones like his son Rand Paul and heroes like Alan West, I think we may have at least a slim shot at bailing out and fixing the ship of state before it actually sinks. We must all stay involved and hold their feet to the fire, and send in more reinforcements in 2012, as well as trying to make this a single term presidency. Perhaps I seem too optimistic, but history has shown us that human beings in general and US citizens in specific, may arrive late to the party, but are then willing to stick it out and fix what’s broken. You only need to look at the number of preparedness articles in the mainstream press and the number of new people discovering blogs like this one and others to know that “we the sheeple” are starting to take more responsibility to become “we the people” or in some cases “we the sheepdogs”. I still think we have time to “vote the bastards out” and get a congress that’s responsive to the needs of the country, and not their own political interests. The democrats fleeing Wisconsin and Indiana do not yet realize that they’re showing the whole country what kind of selfish children they really are. I suspect they will be stunned when most of them lose their jobs.
    As to oil prices, I agree that we’re in for a shock, but perhaps we will finally take the country back and start using the vast resources we have in this country. Open up both the offshore and onshore oil and exploit our huge natural gas and coal reserves, creating not only energy to run the engine of economic growth, but also new good paying jobs. We can then stop burning food and hunker down, making sure we feed our own first. We need the attitude that says, if you want to be my friend I’ll help out where I can, expecting you to pull as much of your own weight as possible. If however you want to be my enemy, you can starve alone in the dark.
    As to the riots in Tunisia and Egypt, most likely with more to come, these were repressive regimes that were only held together with duct tape, bailing wire, and fear. Whether or not you trust the US government, we still do have more control and more freedoms than most of the rest of the world. If you don’t believe this, then brother, you have taken the bait and are already lost. It is said that our country is ruled by boxes, the ballot box, the jury box, and the cartridge box. Pray we never have to use the latter because this won’t be the movies; however, riots in places like L.A. or Madison spreading to the rest of the country just won’t happen. Remember that this is a BIG country and we always have that third option as the final step if required.
    I’ve been a prepper (which is a lifestyle, a mindset, and an attitude) for more than 40 years. My preps like most of yours are an ongoing task. Learning, refining, and adjusting; but with communities like this one, my local prep group, and the Tea Party and its affiliates, I think we have a real shot at rebooting the country, the best days of which are not IMHO behind us.

  51. I don’t see how they can kick the can down the road for another 1 1/2 years. Maybe they will trigger the new madrid this April? Or maybe when fuel prices jump it will be the straw that breaks camels backs? I vote 6 months or less. The person who said when your at the store think “what if I can never go to the store again” it’s a good policy.

  52. Everything depends on the fall harvests. If they are good then we may squeak through, but if they are bad… What happens when food cops fail and the supplies are no longer available for export? When people in Western countries who have never really gone without end up with no work, no house, no money and then no food…

  53. For the largest percentage of people in this world, it’s too late already, but I think for a few it will never happen. How confident are you with your skills and preps?

  54. I voted for one year or less. After watching the news in Wisconsin, Indiana and hearing about the union bosses calling for protests in so many other states…. Food prices, fuel prices going up, unemployment, foreclosures, what’s left? Im lucky to have a job right now but how long will that last and then what? I just hope and pray I will have enough things stored and can weather the storm. I wish for a rural retreat but doesn’t look possible for this year. Hope WTSHTF will be farther down the road than my guess…
    Keep prepping and hope for the best (more time)

    • OhioPrepper says:

      I think the happenings in Wisconsin, Indiana, and here in Ohio are positive things. Perhaps the unholy alliance of politicians, public sector unions, and certain banks and businesses is finally going to have a closing chapter. We the people are demanding that government act responsibly, and in many places that is happening. The solution to better schools isn’t just more and more money, but accountability. If you’re a lousy engineer, or carpenter, or taxi driver, you lose your job and find something else more suitable. It’s time that teachers either measure up, or find more suitable work also.
      When unions started in the early 1900’s, their main reason for existence was workplace safety and to keep workers from being exploited. We now have OSHA, MSHA, FDA, USDA, Fair Labor standards and a lot more which now fulfill those needs. Critics will say that we owe all of these things to the unions, and that unions are somehow sacrosanct, but we owe the horseless carriage to the original carriage makers, and I don’t see anyone trying to keep that area of the economy alive. Unions may have their place in the private sector, but the very essence of prepping is taking individual responsibility for our actions, and not having some group protect those of us who are the grasshoppers instead of the ants.
      I think we have a chance of swerving and avoiding the crash. It’s a very slim chance, but as a prepper, I have always been an optimist.

  55. Semtex-Jes says:

    Hmm I went with 2-3 myself , Just because I hope I have that long to GMST ( get my Sh*t together ) My post will garner some negative attention I fear but here goes….As I sit and think on this,watching new’s about school’s being closed , teacher’s fired at an alaming rate , as we sit well below average in that Dept. already . Our civil liberties being trampled on . in the name of so called safety . Our highest gov position’s up for sale to the highest bidder ( can’t wait till we put this sh*t on ebay where it belong’s ) ,insider trading rampant , banking scandle’s, FREE press controlled by 6 major company’s along with everything else in this country , Suddenly I start to feel like my FREE press isn’t so FREE anymore , Rising food price’s,Rising fuel price’s , lowering of wages across the board,mass lay off’s to in effect reset the wage’s we all worked for an earned , fire the old hire the new at drastically lower wage’s , all the while providing more welfare and more opportunites to immigrant’s and Alien’s , crushing the middle class system as we know it , and allowing our military to be over run by foreign born soldier’s , son’s of Alah , so called Muslim American’s ! As if such a thing could/would ever be allowed or tolerated , Well it does and their Chariot’s will be pulled by unicorn’s , Muslim’s are allowed under their religon to be decetfull to infidels , AKA , US , YOU ME your kids , grandkids , smile in your face while they stab you in the back , ROME wasn’t defeated by an army they were defeated by their own army which had grown thin from Alien soldiers put into it’s military , they simply refused to listen , Like you read about now in our great military , not to mention the crap going on in the muslim controlled world right now…. I would like to change my vote to 1-2 yrs .. And double my effort’s to GMST !

    • Amen, Semtex-Jes. You said pretty much everything that’s got my guts in a knot these days. Corruption and Political Correctness are running rampant. No one is responsible for Sh*t these days and it seems that only we poor, working, tax-paying slob get nailed when we stray outside the lines of government dictated normalcy. Politicians, bankers, celebrity’s and illegals, all get away with murder, but if some fat old white guy spits on the sidewalk, all hell breaks loose. (note, I am all for equality, but I feel that the push for ‘diversity’ has really helped no one.) What happened to the days when you ‘earned’ a promotion or got a job based on your simple ability to do it?

      I’ll stop now before the rant goes full tilt.

  56. When? No one knows… it didn’t happen during my parents life time, it didn’t happen during my grand parents life time, I could go on.

    On the other hand unemployment is making things difficult right now, earthquakes have greatly disturbed a lot of people this last week, folks are still having to move to get away from volcanoes … I’d mention ice storms but I haven’t heard of any this last week. The snow here has not been bad yesterday or today, ask me about it tomorrow.

    So much waiting for this big one (TSHTF) that just haven’t happened over several generations and everyday small turds are turning over lives. Small & personal disasters are everywhere.

    I guess you could have asked in who’s life has tshft in the last year, month, week or whatever. Not really glamorous but very real.

  57. Ridge Runner says:

    Tough question. My answer of 1 to 2 is based on a gut feeling that it’s going to take that long for reserves to run down, patience to run thin, etc. Of course as mentioned by others, there are a number of things that could speed up the timeline, both anticipated and unanticipated.

  58. Alex (Canada) says:

    It kind of depends on what said disaster is. If it is some kind of super earthquake then we can’t really predict that, but an economic collapse I say 1-3 years.

  59. The answer to when the SWHTF is different for different individuals. Obviously, for the elite, the answer is “probably never”. For the auto worker who lost his job in Detroit, it’s “two years ago”. For a family facing foreclosure, it could be, “in six months”. This isn’t to say that we’re all not in for some horrific times; it’s just that collapses, depressions, societal breakdowns, and the like affect different people differently and at different times. The Great Depression actually only substantially affected about 60 percent of the US population. Forty percent squeaked by with significantly less disruption to their lives than, say, migrant workers, dustbowl farmers, etc. Your level of preparedness, your intelligence, your adaptability, your attitude and a little bit of fate and luck will determine how you survive once your personal SHTF scenario comes knocking. It may or may not coincide with the scenarios of others around you, but rest assured that unless you’re one of the elite thieves, it will come. Unfortunately, we’re so far down the road to ruin that I’m afraid the best we can hope for is a crash that isn’t any worse than the Great Depression, although I doubt we’ll be so fortunate. Start helping each other out now, especially those who have already crashed or are about to- it’ll ease things along when you join them later.

    • OhioPrepper says:

      I think the elites (or at least some of them) have already had their SHF moment. It was called Bernie Madoff, who “made off” with most of their money. Don’t ya’ just love the irony 🙂 Even these folks are not immune from the laws of economics and nature.

  60. 173d Viet Vet says:

    I went for 2 to 3 years. I believe that it will take that long for the inflation created by the Federal Reserve’s “Qualitative Easing, 1 & 2 ” to really take effect. Nobody knows what effect the current run-up in oil prices will do. It may hasten the onset of hyper-inflation and the banditry and lawlessness that will accompany it.

    One thing I believe is certain, we have passed the tipping point. I don’t believe that even if Ron Paul or Rand Paul or any other fiscally conservative was made absolute dictator today could this Titanic of a disaster be turned around. We cannot cut enough from federal spending fast enough that will allow our nation to increase its economic output to pay off what is owed…..ever.

    If we want to hold off on the meltdown as long as possible, we need to DRILL, BABY, DRILL !! and we need to start now. We need to allow refineries to be built on military bases where the EPA rules do not apply so that the oil we pump can be converted here. I believe it has been over 40 years since the last refinery was built in the US and it was built in the Virgin Islands. Without cheaper fuel our economy will be dragged slower and slower. A recovery cannot take place when the energy needed for the recovery is costly. (Also get off of coal’s back and let us use our most available fuel !!)

    And on those happy thoughts……

    My advice to all who value freedom is:

    Be alert to all that is going on which will impact the nation’s economy and your life…

    Prepare for bad times by becoming self-reliant and stocking up on food, ammo, barter goods….

    Drill frequently with our Creator by prayer and study….

    Learn and mentally prepare to shoot to kill; some day soon your life or the lives of those you love may depend on that ability…..

    And close ranks with and keep faith with other like minded Christian patriots.

    • Rhonda Sue says:

      Good advice! I need to go target shooting more.Alot more.

      • OhioPrepper says:

        Rhonda Sue,
        Although target shooting is a good way to learn the fundamentals, once you are comfortable with your firearms and relatively proficient, you and anyone planning on defensive use, need to take the next step. Tactical training which includes shooting and moving, cover and concealment, tactical reloading on the move is an essential next step. As Bruce Lee said in one of his movies, when an opponent broke a board for him, “Boards don’t hit back”, and paper targets don’t shoot back. For the handgun, the training would include proper draw from a holster, instinctive shooting, low light shooting and use of a flashlight. This is not stuff from the latest action adventure movie, but real and serious skills to acquire if you plan to potentially shoot more than just paper targets.
        For handguns, the NRA offers (through its certified instructors) follow-up courses to the basic pistol course. The Personal Protection In the Home AND Personal Protection Outside the Home courses offer basic tactical concepts and practical exercises. I would consider these a bare minimum for training beyond the normal static targets at the range. Check with your local gun club or sporting goods outlet for classes or contact the NRA training division.

        • Rhonda Sue says:

          OhioPrepper……Lol…..Thats what my hubby keeps tellin’ me.I just dont feel confident enough yet to hit anything while I am moving.I am not bad just not where I know I need to be.We are planning on spending alot of time this summer in practice.Those classes you mention sound interesting.My sweety is retired army.What comes so easy and natural to him is to date eluding me. My grandmother was a crack shot,so I have been told. Alot of the women need to wake up and realize that your man or your family or the Leo’s….may not be around to protect you or your children.I am putting my ability with firearms first on my to do list.I really want a 20 gauge shotgun.Sweety said soon.Yea!!! Thank you for the advice.You and the others on this forum are so helpful.Who knows…….some little tidbit of knowledge MD or one the commenters on here give… may be responsible for giving us the ability to make our grandchildrens life easier or to even save a life.This is a great community.

    • OhioPrepper says:

      173d Viet Vet,
      We never train to “shoot to kill”, as even stating this after a shooting is a sure way to get you hung out to dry. When we sincerely believe that we are in imminent fear of serious bodily harm or death, then we are justified (in most jurisdictions) to shoot to neutralize the threat. If however the shots are well placed, and the zombies life functions no longer function, then so be it.

  61. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. In April the dollar will no longer be the worlds reserve currency. Hyperinflation will follow, and if you have not prepared by now it is to late. Best of Luck to you all.

  62. Christine R says:

    I chose 6 mo or less because we never know when the S can hit the fan for us as individuals. Times are particularly uncertain now, but it has always been and always will be impossible to predict crisis.

  63. firemedic1991 says:

    i picked 1-2 years because: it will take that long for the rest of americans to get mad/upset and start by wanting to do something. we have no idea when it will happen if/when by nature. man made is unpredectiable. i just hope im home from work when it does happen since i work 75 miles from home. a nice 2-3 day hike. good luck to everyone prepared

  64. 1 year or less. Mostly depends on when our currency loses its reserve status. That is coming. At that point we won’t really be able to print any more currency and then things will be up the proverbial creek without a mode of propulsion and the mode of transportation will have suffered a catastrophic failure.

  65. Would have likes a five years or more choice.

  66. firemedic1991 says:

    beware on buying gold, the feds or whoever is trying to make everyone that buys gold over 100 bucks will have to be fingerprinted and proper id.

  67. I’d rather be wrong and prepared than right and unprepared. Here are some clues: fuel prices, food prices rising and expected to rise more, QE2, record foreclosures, unemployment (I start a new career on Monday after being without steady income since 2008), turmoil in North Africa/Middle East, unsecured US borders, numerous US states nearing bankruptcy, US debt ceiling, union protests in WI and elsewhere, Iran sailing the Suez Canal in provocation and possibly delivering weapons, etc, etc. If you have Faith, rely on it heavily. More than you ever have. If you pray, do it more. Stay vigilant, persevere and NEVER give up. Remember our Fore Fathers and their wisdom because they knew what we would be and are now up against. God bless you all, and God bless the United States of America.

  68. SrvivlSally says:

    Izslamb’s time map is 2013-2020, Wurld Dommination. Currently they are wishing to install sharia law across our land. For our country, that may be wtshtf but we will have to wait to see if it does. We are in 2011 so there is roughly 1 to two years before they begin to enact what they are intending. If it does then all of us americuns are goin’ to have tuh make a run for it. Rather, let ’em have it all so that we may live to see another day and give ourselves a little time to think about the situation. Our country needs to wake up and look the enemy straight in the face and say, “Noooo, you can’t have our country and it’s time for you to get out! We were fine before YOU arrived and, sorry, but we don’t need your help with OUR LAWS. What in the world made you think that we were in need of changing them? What?! You want to cut off all of our heads because, as you have said, we are INFIDELS, you hate America and we are the Big Satan (the evil one)?! Oh, you mean we are non-believers (up yours). We believe! But not what you want us to. Oh!, we’re shaking in our booooots! Uh, oh, we all need to put on our hip waders because you are talking a lot of b.s. and it seems the stuff just keeps getting deeper and deeper. Hey, do you people have any shovels? Oh, and some air freshener, too. What?! We are always insulting you? Wait! Didn’t you just call all of us SATAN? Whoa-ho-ho! That is a real insult! You people ought to be ashamed of yourselves for talking like that!! What did we ever do to you? Hey, when did you get permission to come all the way over here and bully us around and who gave it to you? We’re sorry, but you are going to need a hall pass and your women are not allowed to wear those long black dresses and cover their faces, either. Oh, they do because they want to hide all of the scars from you beating them and because you want them to conceal things for you? Like things that go… Oh, that’s right, you destroyed buses in England as you took over their country. It must have felt good to throw your weight around and be the bully that you really have shown yourselves to be. Ahh, bugger off! That’s right!, you injured some of OUR blood lines when you were throwing your tantrum in England.”

    • OhioPrepper says:

      You state: “all of us americuns are goin’ to have tuh make a run for it. Rather, let ‘em have it all so that we may live to see another day and give ourselves a little time to think about the situation”
      I disagree with your statement. I think about 20-25% of the worlds population self identify as Muslims; however, in this country they are a small minority. The first amendment prohibits a government establishment of religion, so those who want to practice their religion in peace, may do so. If the time comes when an attempt is made to violate that right and impose even elements of sharia, then I see absolutely no reason to run & hide, because there will be nothing to evaluate about the situation. I won’t be more specific and you may take this to mean whatever you please, but running and hiding from a bully has only ever encouraged the bully. Sometimes a bloody nose is required to draw that line in the sand, and stake your claim.

  69. I’d figure it will have a big effect when our next republican president can’t save us eather and the people relize that we cannot depend on our government for rescue

  70. SHTF every day.
    SHTF is an INDIVIDUAL thing.
    It will finally come to the attention of the world that things are globally SHTF when significantly more than half the people in developed world are suffering privation unseen in over half a century.
    We are close to that point now. But we dont have to go over that edge. done right we might never go over that edge, butt if we do ir ont be understood as being universal and longterm for several years.

  71. FLATLANDER says:

    On a more positive note, I think the fact that we are confronting financial realities and are witnessing the tensions that arise from doing that are a healthy sign. A government shut down may not be a bad thing. De-funding illegal immigrants by the tune of 98 billion. Slashing state budgets by drastically reducing these Golden retirement pensions, etc. We may be able to painfully pull up from this and get enough truly representative politicians in place to alter our course. I hope.

  72. Based upon the incredible amount of paper money substitutes being “printed” by this government and the mounting upward pressure in true inflation [not the government’s reported CPI] as well as all the effects of 40 years of a pure dual-tiered fiat monetary system, I would estimate that by the end of 2011 we will begin to see the real effects of our own government’s folly. By 2012, this country will face what we have never faced before, nor dreamed could happen in this country. As the countries of the world continue to repudiate the U.S. Federal Reserve Notes as their reserve currency, the effects of exporting inflation to other countries will come to an end, prices will sky-rocket in this country due to this repudiation by other countries and a hyper-inflationary depression will grip this land causing what we know of our world to be completely turned up-side-down.

  73. The government cannot continue to print fiat money from nothing without some reprecussion. They cannot ignore the law of supply and demand forever. Sooner or later the US dollar will have a dramatic drop in value. The financial gurus suspect this will occur in mid 2012 when they can no longer cover the short term treasury bills. The two biggest things propping up the US dollar’s value (world reserve currency and petrodollars) are both under discussion and may soon be ended. Expect hyperinflation soon. The only thing that could destroy the US dollar quicker would be massive government debt. Oh, wait…

    • “The only thing that could destroy the US dollar quicker would be massive government debt. Oh, wait…”

      And it’s a deadly spiral. When inflation hits they have to offer the bonds at a higher return rate.

      For each 1% they up the rate, we own another 100 BILLION dollars in interest per year on our debt. A 4 or 5% jump would be Armageddon.

      • “…another 4 or 5% would be Armageddon.”

        Sounds a little over dramatic when we have a president who increases the debt more than a trillion in a year without blinking an eye. Nevertheless I agree we are on a difficult path to a hard place.

  74. NoMEPreppy says:

    I’m not going to vote. Simply because I think we’ve already been heading in that direction for many years. SHTF isn’t throwing the frog into a pot of boiling water, it’s putting the frog in a pot of room temperature water, then turning up the heat. The frog doesn’t know he’s being boiled alive.

    American society is the frog. our situation is the pot of water. someone turned on the heat decades ago. Most of the sheeple don’t realize that the water’s getting quite warm.

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